Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: GraceZ who wrote (26581)	1/12/2003 11:54:19 AM
From: _scar_face_	Read Replies (1) of 74559

The same people who were carried away by the greed of the boom are now carried away by the fear of the downside. That's one observation, and probably for very good reason; valuation. Here's another by someone who will most likely "die rich" too, Grace: In fact, Templeton says, he is encouraging those who will listen to stay out of the stock market almost completely and invest in long-term uncallable bonds. "I really remember 1929. It was fascinating. ... I like to keep it straight to arithmetic. How high were the prices [in 1929] in relation to earnings? The maximum was 29 times earnings. Now, in the recent bubble, the Nasdaq went up to 300 times earnings and is still over 100 times earnings, even now." and: Using an old rule of thumb employed by professional investors, Templeton said bear markets often last half as long as the preceding bull market. He counts the bull market as having begun in 1982 and having ended last year – an 18-year run – and wonders out loud if we may be witnessing "maybe a nine-year bear market." Sir John Templeton

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