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Pastimes : Untitled Subject

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To: thames_sider who wrote (258)1/13/2003 10:21:40 AM
From: thames_sider  Read Replies (2) of 347
 
I'm fairly confident the reported info is accurate. It is consistent with the movement of the LYONS and the common price, as well as with common sense strategy. My belief had been that after buying a good portion of the LYONS, that Elan would renegotiate with the remaining LYONS holders on terms that included a time extension. That would have solved any intermediate term cash problem. I would have bet on this approach until the rumor about "rights". Either solution would be fine. The rights approach would rise the money without diluting current investors. For those of us who aren't familiar with this mechanism, the company issues rights to purchase more common to existing shareholders, including the right to oversubscribe to shares not purchased by other stockholders. The price is set at or slightly below current market to assure the offering is fully subscribed, I'm pretty sure. A very nice way to solve the problem.

Now, you may be correct in saying there is really nothing "new" -- I think we all guessed at what was going on with respect to the LYONS. But you have a very different situation now with respect to how the market must view ELN. It looks like its short-term cash problems will be easily solved. Now we have to start valuing the enterprise as a going concern, and it's a very nice shift.

I have started to play with cash flow numbers as I indicated in a previous post. But it's just too hard -- too many holes in the guesses. Let's wait until the next conference call, and then go to work...

fred
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