no idea yet on Chinese stocks, way too early by 2 yrs
I believe the movement will be dictated by their yuan currency
as it is revalued upward, the movement begins in earnest
they are in no hurry
while the world turns & churns, their trade surpluses are massive
$300B held in USTBonds now, more than Japan
annual USA surplus is something like $50B, growing rapidly
I believe the surplus has largest component as WalMart sales
with the yuan so absurdly low, they are killing off Asian competition, forcing each Tiger economy to invest in capital base inside China
Japan has made big commitments already, more coming for certain
when the process is well underway, they will revalue upwards
since the Asian PacRim Tigers will have committed to the Chinese capital base
this is ALL about capex commitments, which are difficult to establish initially, and doubly difficult to back out of, once committed
I intend to investigate in late 2004, early 2005
/ jim |
