Intel, IBM, Msft, Qlgc...
I am trying to keep a few things in mind..
1) Intel has that freakin' "range" estimates, which usually allow a rather large mack truck to be driven thru...Sometimes makes for difficult shorting, for they can be warning and you don't even know it ng On the flip side, Q1 is traditionally the slowest growth quarter for the PC complex, so upside surprises are in many ways harder to acheive. One could counter-argument that last great PC upgrade was '99, so many PCs getting long in tooth (historically 2-3 yr. upgrade cycle getting stretch). Counter-counter is there are no compelling reason to upgrade (new products)
MSFT usually historically conservative in guidance, and not so subject to hyperbole (I'd trust their tone over Intel in most cases). Not usually providing bull fluff (a la Orcl, etc.)
Qglc? Well, EMC was spinning an "improvement" in order, and maybe storage spending getting a oh-so-slight uptick over expectation in Q4. I wouldn't put it past Qglc to be a bit more optimistic then reality (or far more).
IBM? Can they ever spin as well as under Sweet Lou?
So, thinking about a turn, I think the "mojo" turns better for bears getting into Msft, IBM territory vs. Qglc/Intel although this is all freakin' swag. If you believe it is turning soon/Thurs-Fri, hedging by entering a little Tues-Wed is not the worst strategy in the world, but we all have our own individual r/r |
