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Biotech / Medical : Medtronic (MDT)
MDT 90.13-0.1%2:40 PM EST
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To: Dennis who wrote (599)1/13/2003 7:56:34 PM
From: Mike  Read Replies (2) of 687
 
Dennis,

It would appear that the stent division is in for some already known decrease in business following J&J's drug eluting stent approval. This approval should come in early Aprill. The later it is delayed the longer MDT can work to introduce the "zipper".

Has anyone heard how the zipper is selling. In addition,the other part of the vascular division (AAA stents) has been slowed with the approval of the Gore system. The important thing to remember is that this division in whole only represents 10-12% of MDT's total.

As far as moving to $ 60 by years end. With earnings projections for the fiscal year ending 4/04 of $1.64 that would put the semi forward pe of 36.58. The pe right now with earnings expectations for the fiscal year ending 4/03 with expected earning thru that period of $1.41 gives a semi forward pe of 33.33. So if you think MDT is currently "fairly" valued getting to $60 by next Dec '03 is very realistic.

I read something earlier this month from an analyst that MDT's current and forward PE were a lower end of historical ranges. Take that for what it is worth. I think MDT is solid but will not blow the doors out. That is unless the upcoming earnings cause upward revisions in the model. Then were playing the fun game of good moves in the stock. Up to that point of upward revisions we are steady as she goes captain.

Good investing,
Mike
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