From Ed Huang:
Hi Dave, The article you posted seems factual, I don’t have much to comment on it but instead, I add a few of my viewpoints here, and hope that will answer some of your questions.
Here’s my previous post in the other thread that answered a similar issue:
Message 18363913
China economy started to take off about 15 years ago since Deng Xiao Ping made great political and economical reforms in China, including allowing and encouraging private companies to run businesses in the country, which had been totally banned under the communist government since 1949. As I can see, the direction and the momentum for the China economy have been formed in the current historical period, it will continue to move in the up trend and high speed for the next few decades. No matter who's in power.
>>Last August Singapore’s prime minister, Goh Chok Tong, called China’s continuing growth “scary,” and urged his countrymen “to secure a niche for ourselves as China swamps the world with her higher-quality, but cheaper, products.”<<
I have been seeing their products here in North America and I visited China in 1989, 1993, 1996 and last month and witnessed the huge changes in the country. Tong got a good reason to make that remarks.
I see the following reasons for China’s fast economic growth in the next 20-30 years(20-30 years is my rough estimate. After that maybe the fast growth continues or may be just like today’s Japan. That’s beyond my ability to predict).
* China has been backward for hundreds of years and just
like a sleeping giant finally waking up.
* Chinese generally like to work hard and strong at
scientific and technical skills.
* Quality and availability of education in China are
improving.
* Generally speaking, the younger Chinese generation today
has greater IQ than their older generation.
* Very low labor costs.
* Chinese have been poor for a long time and they are
Psychologically hungry for success.
Weakness? A lot: Overpopulation; Above 80% of the nation’s population still belongs to agriculture sector; Official corruption; etc. But the positive factors are strong enough to offset the weak points at this time period, and some of the weaknesses are also being improved, as I can see.
Hope my post helps a bit. |
