"The Jewish Week"
New Culture War Seen For Israel With Shinui surge, religious-secular rift may widen. James D. Besser - Israel Correspondent
The political explosion that polls say will propel the anti-Orthodox Shinui Party into the Israeli government after the Jan. 28 elections could revive bitter disputes over the essential character of the Jewish state.
And that clash could spread to the American Jewish community, where recurrent ?who is a Jew? controversies have receded in the face of renewed terrorism and diplomatic isolation for Israel.
?We are coming back to the potential for culture conflict,? said Dr. Mandell Ganchrow, executive vice-president of Religious Zionists of America (RZA) and a former president of the Orthodox Union.
Ganchrow said that the Shinui surge stems, in part, from ?some of the machinations that have been going in the religious parties in the recent past, where they?ve been more involved with politics than spirituality. Many Israelis are saying, ?I can be traditional at home, but I don?t want these rabbis telling me how to live.? ?
But the passion and power of fervently Orthodox forces in Israel, he said, mean that they won?t go without a fight.
?Once the confrontation with Iraq is over, you?re going to have many of the old divisions coming back to haunt us,? he said.
Shinui is a one-issue party ? focusing almost solely on opposition to power of the fervently Orthodox. Its message is fueled by the resistance of many haredim to serve in the army or join the work force, and the political demands their religious parties make on their behalf, including economic assistance for yeshivas and for the unemployed.
The latest twist in the campaign came as the Sharon government promised an intensified battle against terrorism in the wake of Friday?s carnage at a yeshiva in the West Bank town Otniel, near Hebron, which killed four students and wounded 10. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was retaliation for the killing of one of its leaders near Jenin. Also last week leaders of Hamas called for additional attacks against Israel.
The political development also came as Israel?s Central Bureau of Statistics reported that 2002 was the worst year for the economy since 1953, with the economy shrinking by 1 percent.
Polls in advance of Israel?s election show Likud with a substantial lead. But Likud has slipped from its peak last month because of the still-developing scandal over alleged vote buying in the recent primaries.
According to a Haaretz poll, Likud?s expected share of the next Knesset has dropped from 41 to 35 seats, mostly because of the scandal that has produced sensational headlines for weeks.
The Labor Party, with Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna, an outspoken dove, at the helm, has sputtered, most analysts agree.
But Shinui is surging, the polls show, and could emerge with the third largest number of Knesset seats. Currently Shinui has six seats; projections are that it could win up to 15.
The biggest loser: the religious Shas Party, which polls show could lose half its strength in Knesset.
If the Shinui trend continues, the party could become the kingmaker in the next Israeli government.
The revival of Shinui ? whose leader, Yosef ?Tommy? Lapid, has called for an end to North American immigration because it draws disproportionately from the ranks of the fervently Orthodox ? has caught on with Israeli voters because of growing frustration with the perceived political extortion of the religious parties for their educational system and the belief among haredim that they protect Israel spiritually by studying Torah rather than militarily, by serving in the army.
Shinui has gained more momentum because of recent actions of the two major parties.
?The Israeli voters are faced with a rudderless Labor Party and an apparently corrupt Likud,? said a former government official and Likud activist. ?Even the very name ?Shinui? appeals to them ? it means ?change.? Tommy Lapid is viewed as a ?tell-it-like-it-is? kind of guy? maybe a cross between Archie Bunker and Pat Buchanan.?
The Shinui movement is particularly strong among younger Israelis. In effect, it is becoming the fashionable alternative to the traditional parties. It is also picking up support from Russian immigrants angry about what they see as discriminatory treatment by the Orthodox establishment.
Lapid, who took over a moribund Shinui Party in 1999 ? the party was created in 1974 to promote government reforms ? combines themes popular with the Israeli public, this former government official said: haredi-bashing and distrust of Yasir Arafat.
The party?s platform includes the promise not to join any government that includes ?ultra-Orthodox parties.? Recently Lapid extended that promise, saying his party would not join any left-wing government.
The platform supports the peace process ? but not with Arafat as a partner, and it demands ?the cessation of terror (as) an indispensable condition for progress in the diplomatic negotiations.?
But it also states that ?as part of the peace arrangements, Israel will also have to leave settlements scattered in the heart of Palestinian populations, but Israel will not evacuate settlement blocs, and these will be integrated within Israel?s borders.?
Lapid is a 72-year-old former print journalist and television personality and the only Holocaust survivor still in the Knesset. Lapid?s father was a newspaper editor and Lapid followed in his footsteps, working for decades at the daily Maariv newspaper and eventually serving as managing editor.
The Shinui phenomenon, Israeli political observers say, started in the late 1990s, mostly in response to what many Israelis see as outright extortion by religious parties like Shas, which extract vast government subsidies as the price of their participation in ruling coalitions.
?Lapid himself is not popular, but his party is benefiting from growing national disgust with the power of the religious,? said a longtime Labor Party activist.
A big gain by Shinui in the upcoming election would set the stage for new battles over things like commercial activity on Shabbat, military exemptions for yeshiva students and conversion. And that could spill over into the American Jewish arena.
?It?s very hard to predict exactly what the results of any particular development in Israel will be,? said Rabbi Shmuel Goldin, spiritual leader of Congregation Ahavath Torah in Englewood, N.J., and head of a pro-peace process Orthodox group. ?But there are clearly issues that remain to be addressed, both in Israel and American society, concerning the role of religion. They get swept under the rug whenever we unite against a common enemy, but when the threat diminishes, then our divisions rise to the fore again.?
Rabbi Goldin acknowledged the power of the Shinui movement, but said that he is troubled by its negativity.
?Here what you really have is a party that has as its raison d?etre what it?s against, not what it?s for,? he said. ?I will be the first to say that the division between the Orthodox and secular communities in Israel is tragic and that has a degree of fault on both sides. But I certainly don?t think the way to repair it is to raise the level of attack.?
The rising debate in Israel, he said, could spill over into the American Jewish community in negative ways.
But Rabbi Jerome Epstein, president of the United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism, said that American Jews may respond positively to the rise of Shinui.
?I?m not a prophet, but I?ve been watching the Shinui rise and I see it as potentially ? underline the word ?potentially? ? a positive factor in terms of changing Israeli society,? he said.
It all depends on whether Shinui transforms itself into a responsible political party, not just a protest movement, when it gains a bigger toehold in Knesset.
?What is important is the level of discourse that Shinui enters into, once they get more seats,? he said.
If Shinui doesn?t make that transition, he said, ?it could be terribly and permanently disruptive in Israeli society. And obviously at some point there will be a spillover into the American Jewish community.? n
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