I actually think Joe Public CASHED (past tense) out, in 2002 especially tech stocks where volumes on former high flyers are around 1mm shares/day on a $1 stock.<<<
there are a lot of indicators that hit extremes last year, one thing that happenened during the slide into july, is that there was no place to hide, during the bear market up until then there had been a place to hide, small caps, homebuilders, value stocks, gold stocks, etc.
into the july bottom there was a whooosh, they sold everything and sold it hard, huge vix, even gold stocks got sold hard and that was the point where the everyday joe started selling his mutual funds and has ever since, according to one market timer i follow, 84% of the money going into the markets going into the march 00 top was going into equities, at the october 02 low 86% of the money was going into bond funds.
i think there was probably enough of a craps out for the bears at lows last year to at minimum set up a sideways market for this year, possibly some appreciable upside.
I don't think bear bets, will have a good year this year, unless you catch the tops with pristine accuracy. |
