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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
ORCL 219.89-1.3%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (17821)1/14/2003 12:46:16 PM
From: MeDroogies  Read Replies (1) of 19079
 
I have a degree in economic history and am well aware of the previous booms. I agree that this boom was much smaller than the previous ones, but it has had longer legs, and has been much more pervasive in its impact.
The other booms came and went for specific reasons - but primarily it was an issue of commoditization. No matter how you cut it a car is a car. Standardization of manufacturing was another reason. Once capital was spent, further spending did not impact productivity to as great an extent as it can with high tech.
With technology, it is qualitatively different. Commoditization is unlikely to occur due to the overwhelming forces of competition, which require constant upgrades and the delivery of new product. It is also low cost for start up, which is very different than manufacturing. As a result, small businesses and start ups are much more likely in the tech industry than in the other tech revolutions. And they are likely to continue for longer periods of time.

I agree the parallels are there, and I was touting the railroad similarities as far back at 3-4 years ago. But to ignore the differences is to be as ignorant as those who felt it was "different this time". It WAS different...just not in the ways they thought.
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