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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (42200)1/14/2003 7:14:51 PM
From: Saulamanca  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
From Paul Kedrosky of realmoney.com:

On this INTC capex issue, keep in mind that a
capex forecast is a fluid thing, more a reflection
of a semi house's wishes for the year than reality.
So INTC's final capex for the year could be quite
different from what it's currently forecasting
-- higher or lower.
To put this year in context, looking back to
1996 Intel's actual capex has been the same or
lower than its forecast capex in five of those
seven years. On average, capex came in 2% lower
than forecasted.

Here are the numbers:

Year Forecast ($b) Actual ($b) Diff
1996 4.1 3 -27%
1997 4.5 4.5 0%
1998 5.3 3.6 -32%
1999 3 3.4 13%
2000 5 6.67 33%
2001 7.5 7.3 -3%
2002 5.5 4.7 -15%
2003 3.7 ?
Average: -4%
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