I agree. Plus, with low interest rates, it pays to borrow if you can implement cost saving software, and make the money on the backend.
I don't believe tech can ever really "mature". It just isn't the nature of the beast when it comes to information management. New ways are always being developed to grow and manage businesses. If there were one right way, all businesses would be successful and there wouldn't be room for competition.
As for comparing tech to past bubbles, another thought struck me as I was walking in the city today: management of the supply chain. Previous boom and bust cycles were primarily a result of oversupply. This would typically occur as manufactured/ing goods were stockpiled during booms. When the boom petered out, there was nobody to buy the goods, and inventories had to be run down.
Software doesn't suffer that fate. Its cycle is very different. In addition, software helps reduce the boom/bust of consumer purchasing by allowing inventories to be managed more efficiently. People can point to the current boom/bust and talk about how severe it is. Historically, however, this has been VERY mild from a purchasing standpoint. In fact, the inventory to sales ratio, right now, is at an all time low.
Typically, that means we're about to jump start the boom times again. Sadly, I believe what it means, for now, is that people have a better handle on the supply chain. There won't be a jump start this time, but a nice slow steady growth trendline. |
