re: SIRI to me, after reading the filings it looks like you have the bondholders, and they don't want the company to go BK because they get almost nothing. Previous satellite bust ups have shown that the 3 floating birds are not gonna be worth anything to anyone. Then you have these moron hedge funds that own a big wad of prefferred and they don't want a BK because they lose everything. So the company tries to raise money, but no one is biting, and it's toast. So the majority bondholders agree to change there debt into shares providing the company can get some money, and the hedge fund guys figure they'll put in $200mm more for shares at around $.95. The cash they put in gives the company another year to bleed cash, so the hedgies are betting they can dump $200mm plus of stock in a year, even though the bondholder guys will be dumping as well.
Or scenario two is that you actually believe that people are now suddenly going to subscribe in droves, even though they've only got 29k people so far, compared to 200k for XMSR, and SIRI cost $3/month more. That's of course idiotic to me, so I believe it's scenario one. And since these big players will soon have a lot of stock to dump, I would imagine we'll see this thing get pumped and dumped repeatedly in the next year. Should be a nice cash cow for shorts, and i'm sure tooldude types can play the bounce to, weeeeeee.
Is that about what you guys came up with?
Oh and did you read the part in the SEC filing about how all sattelites that I think it was Hughes made since 1997 have some parts failing on them that could lead to toal failure(including SIRI's) but the failures they've had so far haven't been that bad and they don't anticipate any bad ones, LOL. I can just picture there sats flying through space, spewing the occasional nut, bold or circuit board. |
