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Strategies & Market Trends : Moufassa's Lair
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To: Goodale who wrote (11463)1/15/2003 5:28:59 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (1) of 13660
 
Goodale: <<How low do we go>>??

If I had to hazard a guess, I think the following will happen:

1. Once we get into the latter half of February and closer to war with Iraq, the seasonality "good vibes" will no longer exist and bad news will once again be bad news. We head lower.

2. I do not subscribe to the cataclysmic lows some of the more bearish pundits see on the horizon (Prechter, Fleckenstein, David Tice, etc.). I think the October lows may not be violated later this year and think the economic picture is sufficiently muddled and mixed that this year's lows are higher than October 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nasdaq bounces at or slightly below 1200 sometime between July and October prior to a solid Q4 2003 rally into 2004.

BWDIK.
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