Short MRVL at $22.30. Retest the 52 week low in Feb/March?
I don't want to anger longs, because I was long MRVL in mid October at $13.50 and road it up quite a ways. But I think a war w/Iraq is nearly inevitable, forgive this political opinion as many human lives are involved, and the whole market is due to correct (Just my opinion), sharply in February. Very sharply. My decision is that MRVL is pricey above $20.00, no doubt, as it's not even profitable, yet. An aggressive and savvy company though. I like this company when the stock price is not so inflated. But if troops start bombing and shooting, with Israel (read: MRVL exposure) so close by, and even if war does not happen, the market is due to correct. Early January is one of the most bullish time periods and that is now ending...MRVL is one of the better shorting opportunties as I only want to be short right now. In 2002, the January bull rally ended on January 10th. We are past that now. In 2001, the January bull rally ended January 20th, we are nearly there. To borrow from the recent Soundview report, "It's Groundhog day all over again." (Bill Murray wakes up to see the same thing over and over again).
I think by March 1st MRVL can retest $11.27. If so, I'm buying all the beer you can drink at the Faultline Brewery.
That's my bet. That's all. Why would anyone be long the market right now, period. Much less MRVL?
Although at the height of doom and gloom at the end of February or early March, if MRVL is down near $10.00 and I have bought you the draft beer I promised, I will probably flip and buy all the MRVL calls I can muster.
But not now. No way. The market and MRVL are most likely headed south.
Just my 2 cents. |
