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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?
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To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (1651)7/26/1997 9:24:00 PM
From: van wang   of 3431
 
maybe this is crazy..but it makes no sense to try to time the market to overbought situations with core holdings...if you think GEMS has more juice then dont risk selling core holdings...if you want to trade around the trend line then buy more on dips then sell the extra you bought...its illogical to sell core holdings to buy back later IF you think GEMS has a way to go...the risk of not getting back is too great in light of the amount of time we spend tracking and finding a good stock...mkt always allows you to do this!...if your analysis is correct then probability wise, the fundamentals supports being long

now if you think its 50/50 that it can go up or down X dollars and the odds are not to your liking (it could a different set of probability that fit your risk return profile)...then sell the whole lot

but it seems illogical to sell your holdings in hopes of buying back...IMO, the little piece of change isnt good enough for the risk...just try buying on dips like the last one GEMS had that let people do this at $16 handle....if you follow GEMS then you should know the valuation and the story...dont create demons for yourself and have faith...just put in a stop loss for the little extra kittie you try to put in to be a short term trader... again, fundamentals will support your greedy short term trading tendencies and,sooner or later, you will get out with a profit even if you make an entry mistake...this has worked out for me in the past

with GEMS, I did this at $12 1/8 and decided to hold and again at $16 3/4 and $16 1/2...i am still holding...i will sell only if the overall mkt slides on interest rates or if some information on GEMS turns me negative...i usually dont let how much i made take up too much of my decision...but amir's issue on portfolio concentration is a valid point sell for the purpose of risk mgmt

i also dont exactly like the mechanical model approach of selling portions ...but evryone manages their portfolio his or her own ways

bbibifn
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