The North Korean Crisis.
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Thursday, Jan. 16, 2003
newsmax.com
The author had a strong temptation during the last several days to extend a string of reports regarding PLA modernization with Russian-Ukrainian-Belarus assistance. Important facts are coming to light almost daily! The internal events in Russia and some other former Soviet republics are also of great interest.
However, the attention of America is now on another object: North Korea.
During most of 1994, just before immigrating to the United States, the author worked in the office of South Korean giant Samsung Electronics, held a daily series of talks with Moscow research institutes and "independent inventors" and, simultaneously, used every minute available to learn Korean.
By May-June 1994, I mastered this unordinary language to a degree sufficient to read political and economic articles in Seoul's leading papers (Samsung executives had a large stock of them). It was the time of the "first Korean nuclear crisis," when then-President Bill Clinton told then-"Great Leader" of North Korea, Kim Il Song: Stop your nuclear program or deal with the consequences, most probably in the form of a missile strike."
I remember the anxiety of Seoul's papers: "What would be the outcome? Could it result in a war embracing the entire Peninsula?" Korean employees of Samsung were also unable to hide their worries.
Eventually, Kim Il Sung, the "Great Leader" of a starving country with no allies in the "outer world" (except, probably, for Iran and some other customers of North Korean missiles), had to give up, for a handsome reward in the form of fuel, etc.
A new "Korean nuclear crisis" started at the beginning of November 2002 had escalated greatly by the year's end. Readers of NewsMax, in contrast to the consumers of mainstream media, evidently have enough intellect to recognize that the new crisis is not an occasional phenomenon, caused by momentary caprice of the new "Great Leader," Kim Jong-il. All this didn't emerge from "thin air"! Let's track the roots of the new crisis.
Events of June-September 2002
At the beginning of June 2002, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, Jiang Zemin and Vladimir Putin discussed in detail a lot of problems regarding Chinese-Russian military-technological, economic and strategic-geopolitical cooperation, reaching a consensus over most of them. No doubt the Korean problem was among the major items during the talks.
By this time, as a result of joint Chinese-Russian efforts in 2000, 2001 and the first half 2002, North Korea was no longer internationally isolated. During that period, Kim Jong-il visited Moscow and Beijing, and received Jiang Zemin and Putin in Pyongyang; North Korea significantly expanded economic exchange with China (more exactly, exchange of Chinese grain and oil products for almost nothing from North Korea); Russia and North Korea prepared the new Friendship and Cooperation Treaty, and North Korea received broad access to Russian weaponry.
It is possible to claim that, by June 2002, North Korea was effectively though informally involved in the rapidly developing Chinese-Russian alliance. (The author described this process, to the degree available, in NewsMax articles published in 2001-2002.) This, definitely, emboldened Kim Jong-il and his associates.
Nobody knows in detail what program of cooperation with Pyongyang was approved by Jiang and Putin in Petersburg. In any case, we are dealing with the consequences.
On June 26-29, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov visited Pyongyang and Seoul. It would be suitable to quote here the comments about this visit in China's authoritative magazine Liaowang (major items only).
"The visit of Foreign Minister Ivanov appeared to be the first visit of a high-ranking foreign diplomat to the Korean Peninsula, after the naval clash of North and South Korea at the end of June [several dozen South Korean servicemen were killed in this incident]. This visit symbolized the balanced policy of Russia on the Korean Peninsula, aimed at the development of political and economic relations with the two Koreas.
"For several years after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., relations between Russia and North Korea were frozen. Putin, after becoming the president of Russia, radically changed this situation. Putin visited Pyongyang in July 2000 and Seoul in February 2001, thus promoting Russian ties with North and South Korea.
"During the two years (between mid-2000 and mid-2002), Russia achieved a lot in the Korean Peninsula. Ivanov's visit creates a base for further Russian progress here. Particularly, Ivanov spoke for five hours with Kim Jong-il. They discussed reviving the dialogue between North and South Korea, the relations of two countries with Russia and with America.
"In January 2002, Bush proclaimed his "Axis of Evil" theory, which caused fierce protests in North Korea as well as strong negative reaction in South Korea. Russia instantly stressed that Bush's statements were not based on serious evidence. Many people in South Korea share this position.
"Russia, as a great weapon exporter, intends to exploit maximally the weapon markets of both Koreas. Besides, Russia has great economic interests on the Korean Peninsula: Russia wants to use local work resources as well as capitals (of South Korea) for economic development of the Russian Far East; Russia wants to construct a pipeline for delivering natural gas to both Koreas; Russia wants to restore the Trans-Korean railway for transporting goods from South Korea via Russia to Europe." [end of compressed translation]
This text confirms some conclusions earlier made by the author:
Putin's regime intends to expand, to the maximum degree possible, its positions – economic, political, etc. – on the Korean Peninsula, and to use them for getting large incomes, particularly from selling weaponry to both Koreas.
Putin's regime, for the same purpose, wants to "push away" America from the Korean Peninsula.
Beijing generally supports Moscow's efforts and aspirations in Korea.
Ivanov's visit to Pyongyang established the base for the summit of Putin and Kim Jong-il in August 2002. And at the beginning of August, Moscow media – mostly, but not exclusively, the leftist ones – marked the first anniversary of the "historical visit" of Kim Jong-il to Moscow in August 2001. The most important items of corresponding articles are as follows:
All-side enhancement of political and economic relations between Russia and North Korea takes place simultaneously with the growth of tensions between Washington and Pyongyang. And this is the fault of America, not of North Korea.
Moscow and Pyongyang intend to develop cooperation in metallurgy, energetic, natural gas extraction, fishing and railways. Particularly, both sides are interested in joining the Russian Trans-Siberian railway with the Trans-Korean railway.
During the summit in Moscow, the two leaders stressed that the North Korean missile program had a peaceful character and threatened nobody. The joint Russian-North Korean declaration required the withdrawal of American troops from South Korean territory. This will become the base for peaceful unification of Korea.
In response to peaceful initiatives of Moscow and Pyongyang, the American side included North Korea into the "Axis of Evil" and undertook other actions undermining stability of the Korean Peninsula. [end of Moscow media quotations]
One more quotation of the Moscow media, this time a pro-governmental one, namely, major ideas from the articles published several days before the Kim-Putin summit in Vladivostok on Aug. 23 2002:
This would be a summit of extreme importance.
Kim Jong-il recently began modernization of the North Korean economy. Renovation – with Russian assistance – of several hundred enterprises earlier constructed with Soviet aid becomes urgently necessary. Particularly, North Korea needs Russian assistance in construction of the railway, gas pipeline and oil pipeline. They will connect South Korea, via North Korea, with Russia. And all the sides will get enormous profits.
Russian political support is even more important for North Korea than economic support. That's because the U.S. recently included this country in the "Axis of Evil," jointly with Iraq and Iran. [end of quotation]
Is it really necessary to use all these quotations? Yes, if we really want to understand the roots of and reasons for the present dangerous crisis.
Let's survey now a series of articles describing the Kim-Putin summit, in the Japanese papers (Nihon Keizai, Asahi, on Aug. 23-25, 2002). The articles can be reduced to the following:
In contrast to the Kim-Putin meeting in August 2001, when the two sides united against America and particularly its NMD (national missile defense) project, this time the two sides discussed mostly economic cooperation problems, primarily, Trans-Korean railway construction. This railway will create a great flow of goods from South Korea, via Russia, to Western Europe. Kim and Putin also discussed the use of a North Korean workforce in Russian Far East development.
Asahi Shimbun even published a cartoon: Stick-lean Putin ("Uncle Pu," as he is called here) is holding the legs of the chubby Kim Jong-il and lifting him up as high as possible, so Kim can observe the entire world.
Finally, the Japanese media made a moderate optimistic conclusion: Pu-ojisan (Uncle Pu) takes North Korea out of isolation, helps it to overcome economic hardships and, step-by-step, returns it to civilized society. A much more serious comment on the Kim-Putin summit is given in the article "Kim Jong-il's Visit to Russia and the 'Honeymoon' in Russian-North Korean Relations" in the previously mentioned Beijing-based Liaowang weekly magazine in the beginning of September (the author's comments are given in parentheses):
On Aug. 20-24, Kim Jong-il visited the Russian Far East (RFE) and met Russian president Putin. Rently, Russian-North Korean relations have improved greatly. This included the approval of the Good Neighborhood and Friendship Treaty in February 2000, Putin's visit to Pyongyang in July 2000 and Kim's visit to Moscow "through Siberia on a special train" in August 2001.
Since then, bilateral ties have developed rapidly, especially in the political area and in cooperation in the international arena.
At the new Kim-Putin summit (Aug. 23, 2002), it was decided to strengthen cooperation in the political, economic and military areas, and in particular joint activity in the international arena.
Remarkably, both countries are firmly against the U.S. NMD project and the construction of the East Asian Theater Missile Defense System (which should cover Japan, South Korea and, possibly, Taiwan). North Korea now is under heavy American pressure; it is even included in the "Axis of Evil." In this situation North Korea needs to get Russian assistance. Russia, in its turn, is using the improvement of relations with North Korea as a trump card against America. After the disintegration of the USSR, the U.S. is continuously jamming the Russian living space (exact translation) and has proclaimed North Korea, Iran and Iraq – traditional allies of Russia – "Axis of Evil" countries.
During the last several years, Russia recovered and strengthened the relations with these traditional allies. Now Russia intends to oppose America and the unipolar world constructed by America. It is possible to understand that Russia and North Korea would form a united position (i.e., the united front) toward America.
Under the American pressure, the situation on the Korean Peninsula recently became tense and dialogue between the two Koreas stagnated. This situation created a new opportunity for Russian activity on the Korean Peninsula. Particularly, Russian activity could result in the crushing of American plans (regarding North Korea), and this is positive.
Russian-North Korean trade reduced from $600 million in 1992 to $150 million in 2001. The two sides intend to expand the economic exchange dramatically on the base of
large-scale export of the North Korean work force to the Russian Far East (RFE) for timber cutting, etc. (this means, in practice, slave trade or, at least, "slave leasing"); that's important because the RFE lost more than 1 million people in the 1990s.
supply of Russian machinery to modernize 38 North Korean industrial enterprises earlier constructed by the USSR; supply of Russian coal to North Korea.
reconstruction of North Korean seaports; construction, with Russian assistance, of a steel plant and oil refinery in North Korea.
construction of a gas pipeline from Russia, via North Korea, to South Korea; reconstruction of the Trans-Korean railway and connecting it to the Russian Trans-Siberian railway. The last two projects will provide Russia with great economic benefits while, at the same time, greatly expanding Russian (geo-) political influence on the Korean Peninsula. Reportedly, all these issues were discussed during the last Kim-Putin summit. The two countries are recreating military-technological cooperation. That's of especial importance for North Korea, whose weapons, mostly of Soviet origin, have become obsolete.
Among more than 500 North Korean fighters, more than 50 percent should be scrapped, and the comparatively modern Soviet MiG-29 and SU-25 compose only 5.4 percent of the fighters.
According to an August statement of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, Russia has already delivered North Korea "not so advanced weapons," mainly tank equipment and attack fighters. Deliveries of Russian tanks, fighters, naval vessels and air defense weapons would decrease the present military unbalance between South and North Korea.
Once again, Russia is engaged in independent policy toward North Korea and doesn't want to follow a U.S. "Axis of Evil"-related policy." (end of "compressed translation")
The author is grateful to Liaowang magazine for publishing such a candid article, throwing light on dark secrets of the Kremlin's policy. Now it is evident – at least to a serious "non-brainwashed" reader – that the Kim-Putin summit pursued both economic and strategic-military goals; and probably, the latter ones had the maximal significance for the two "Great Leaders." Particularly, Kim Jong-il left this summit with the following knowledge:
Whatever action – or provocation – North Korea takes toward America, Japan or South Korea, the blessing and support of Moscow – and Beijing as well – is guaranteed to Pyongyang.
Under any circumstances, the flow of comparatively advanced weapons from Russia to North Korea will expand greatly.
An article in Liaowang mentioned the "August statement" of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. He made this statement on Aug. 26, three days after the Kim-Putin summit, while visiting Buryatia republic in the Trans-Baikal zone of Russia:
"Russia supplies defensive weapons to North Korea as well as components for Russian-built tanks and warplanes. None of the military technology involves modern and offensive weapons. The extent of Russian military assistance to North Korea would depend on Pyongyang's economic and financial capabilities. Russia and North Korea agreed in April 2001 to resume Russian military cooperation."
The information from the Moscow opposition media (Pravda, Zavtra, Sovetskaya Rossiya papers) – hating America and, consequently, glorifying Kim Jong-il – is also of definite interest (major items only):
The Kim-Putin summit became the greatest political breakthrough for North Korea and all of Northeast Asia. The road is open for peaceful unification of Korea; this will provide the new dynamic for economic and political development in this world region. America will become the only loser: U.S. troops will leave South Korea. Not only North Koreans, but South Koreans also, consider Kim Jong-il the real leader and future "uniter" of Korea.
On Aug. 20-24, Kim Jong-il traveled over the RFE Primorye (Maritime) and Khabarovsk regions, stayed in Khabarovsk, Vladivostok and Komsomolsk-na-Amure cities, visited various factories, military units, supermarkets, etc. He held a series of talks with the governors of these regions and local business leaders. RFE is open for broad economic cooperation with North Korea.
Particularly, Kim Jong-il met, in Khabarovsk, his old friend Konstantin Pulikovsky, Putin's plenipotentiary (general-governor) in the RFE. Kim met Pulikovsky – mostly in Pyongyang – several times a year during 2002. Kim also visited workshops of the Komsomolsk-na-Amure Aircraft Plant engaged in large-scale production of SU-27 and SU-30 advanced fighters for China. (end of Moscow media comments)
Moscow's opposition media could be nonobjective, but it is well-informed. Definitely, North Korea, after the Kim-Putin summit, was going to get from Russia The SU-series fighters (Do they belong to "non-offensive" weapon?) and other modern weapon technology.
Despite all the listed threatening signs, the situation around North Korea was quiet up to the end of September. On Aug. 30, Seoul and Pyongyang reached an agreement about Trans-Korean railway construction. And on Sept. 17, Japanese Prime-Minister Koizumi visited Pyongyang, held talks with Kim Jong-il and reached some agreements about economic and political cooperation. Kim even obliged to restrain from new missile testing.
The media in Seoul and Tokyo – and in Beijing as well – hailed all this as a "real breakthrough diminishing the tensions on the Korean Peninsula and all of Northeast Asia." The same media hailed the "start of great economic reform" in North Korea and, again, appreciated the "constructive position and activity of Moscow on the Korean Peninsula."
Now, only three to four months since, all the statements of this kind sound silly.
Events of October-December 2002
On Oct. 10, Asahi Shimbun and some other leading Japanese newspapers published the following message:
"Russia and North Korea will hold joint military maneuvers. Adm. Fyodorov, chief of staff of the Russian Pacific Fleet, stated while visiting Japan that in November 2002, the Russian Pacific Fleet will hold, inside North Korean territorial waters, joint maneuvers with the North Korean navy. Such joint maneuvers will take place for the first time since the disintegration of the USSR. Adm. Fyodorov claimed, at the same time, that Russia is developing good relations jointly with North and South Korea."
Russian-North Korean military ties reached a level unseen in decades of Soviet-Russian history. Did any Soviet-North Korean military maneuvers take place from the 1960s to the 1980s? The author has no idea. Very probably, military ties between Russia and North Korea – as well as in the entire China-Russia-North Korea triangle – recovered to a level unseen since the 1950s, when the USSR, China and North Korea jointly struggled against "American imperialism and its puppets in Seoul and Tokyo."
However, even in October 2002 the Japanese papers continued publishing "see no evil" articles, in particular hailing the role of Beijing diplomacy in diminishing the tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In the beginning of November, it became known, during talks between high-ranking State Department and North Korean officials in Pyongyang, that North Korea had resumed its nuclear program. The potential crisis on the Korean Peninsula had become a real one. The moderately optimistic tone of the Japanese papers changed to a worried one.
And what about the Beijing media?
On Nov. 19, the authoritative Jingji Ribao (Economic Daily) described the North Korean situation in the article "Renovation and Reform Accelerate Economic Rise" (major theses only):
"… During the last several months, North Korea undertook large-scale economic reform, which received attention and approval all over the world. Under the leadership of the Korean Workers Party, the people of North Korea are taking the road of constructing real socialism, in accordance with the reality of the present epoch. …"
In brief, the article hailed the recent economic initiatives of the North Korean regime – establishment of the Sinuiju Special Economic Zone (bordering China) and other measures aimed at attracting foreign investment, etc. – and claimed that "North Korean prosperity is just around the corner." Other leading Beijing newspapers and magazines published similar articles in November.
Evidently, Beijing was very pleased by Pyongyang's actions – both internal and those concerning foreign policy.
On Dec. 1-3, during the Jiang-Putin summit in Beijing, the two sides stated once again their positions and activity regarding joint economic projects, weapons supply and, naturally, "flexible support" of Iraq and North Korea.
This resulted specifically in "freedom of action" for Kim Jong-il. He knew for certain that the joint Chinese-Russian declaration adopted by Jiang and Putin during the summit, asking North Korea to give up its nuclear program, was merely a cheap hypocrisy.
In December, Beijing and Moscow published several more demagogic documents of this kind. Look, for example, at the article in Renmin Ribao on Dec. 13:
"Russia expressed deep concern over the declaration of DPRK [North Korea] that it would immediately reactivate its nuclear programs in response to the U.S. suspension of heavy oil supplies to the country. … Russia urges DPRK and USA to resolve their disputes through dialogue and on the basis of previous agreements."
A cynical grin is easily discernible here: "America and North Korea – and, probably, America to greater degree – are both responsible for the new Korean crisis."
Or another article in Renmin Ribao, published on Dec. 24:
"Russia warned the USA that the way it handles the nuclear issue of North Korea could aggravate the tension. 'It is counterproductive and dangerous to blackmail the DPRK over its grave economic position,' Russian Deputy Foreign Minister George Mamedov stated.
"Mamedov criticized Washington for taking a bellicose approach to the DPRK. … Mamedov said that the same approach was also employed by Washington to Iraq and Iran, which were on the list of the "axis of evil" termed by U.S. President Bush. He also described the U.S. approach on the DPRK situation as extremely inappropriate, even provocative."
In summary: America alone should be blamed for this crisis! Do whatever you want, Comrade Kim, China and Russia are on your side! America won't touch you!
Conclusions
A lot of facts are given. Now it's the time to make the proper conclusions.
On Jan. 6, NewsMax columnist John LeBoutillier published the article "Potential War Scenarios," which contained following:
"A third scenario is coming into focus daily: the North Korean Card.
"Russia and Red China – the real Axis of Evil – are the puppet-masters of Pyongyang. It is they who have goosed Kim Jong-il to act up like a petulant baby as a way to slow down and distract the focus on Iraq."
The author is glad that he is not alone. A number of NewsMax readers probably share the same point of view. During the last two weeks the author exchanged opinions with friends and colleagues in Washington, D.C. Almost all of them are certain that Moscow and Beijing encourage and inspire Kim Jong-il's crazy actions.
Now the conclusions: 1) By the end of 2002, America got a 'second front' on the Korean Peninsula, in addition to the first front, Iraq.
According to the "mainstream media," all the guilt lies on Kim Jong-il – "as evil as Saddam Husein." Kim is evil, but he is merely a marionette in the hands of Jiang Zemin and Vladimir Putin. Eventually, it is necessary to recognize that the "second front" was created by Moscow and Beijing.
They did it primarily to distract the America's attention and forces from Iraq. Moreover, they are trying to prevent, if possible, a U.S. and U.K. attack on Iraq.
2) Russian interests are as follow:
Getting a new weapons market on the Korean Peninsula and, simultaneously, receiving a flow of cheap labor (de facto slaves) to Siberia.
Establishing a new large-scale crisis hotbed, which will encourage a new increase in world oil prices.
Increasing the influence of Russian diplomacy in all of Northeast Asia and, simultaneously, undermining American influence in this strategic zone.
Indirectly defending Saddam's regime in Iraq.
3) The Chinese interest is primarily establishing control over the entire Korean Peninsula. No need to give the details. By the way, Beijing already has become the most important mediator in the Korean crisis.
Nobody has illusions about Beijing, but there are still a lot of illusions about Moscow. Now the question for NewsMax readers: Who is the greater enemy of America – Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong-il or Vladimir Putin?
Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the forthcoming "Russian-Chinese Alliance."
Visit Dr. Nemets' Web site at excelenterprises1.tripod.com. |
