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Market Swing Discussion: Don Sew's Chat Room Notes and Recaps
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Posted by Nikko_thyme on Thursday, January 16, 2003 - 10:01 am:
Chat Notes 1/16/03 9:30 AM
Weekly Signals : UPPER MIDRANGE OVERBOUGHT.
Daily Signals : MIDRANGE.
Donald is holding an over 50% Short position which is a mix of options
and short funds. If he gets a CLASS 1 BUY signal he will likely cover
some shorts and use any bounce up to add the shorts back. He will
close some short term puts this week.
Donald thinks the USD may go lower which may prevent GOLD from
falling, and may push it up.
-From Donald regarding the possible Capitulation Top (posted earlier
today) -
"Just yesterday, got another CAPITULATION TOP READING(weekly for NDX)
which is calling for a minimum 18% decline. The last one was early DEC
which only produce a 14% decline, but this second CAPITULATION TOP
reading has actually completed a double top. This DOUBLE TOP PATTERN
occurred once before, which was last JAN and that specific
down-swing produced a 21% decline, but more importantly it identified
the top prior to last OCT's bottom where the complete decline was 54%.
NO! I'm not saying that it will again produce 54%, just that the
chances of a min 18% decline are strong.
The record for this indicator so far is 13 for 13. That is NOT
STATISTICALLY VIABLE, but I believe it has strong merit. This
indicator is based off of the same data that produces the CAPITULATION
INDICATOR that identified the OCT bottom, which has a record of 24 for
25(also NOT STATISTICALLY VIABLE, but getting close) "
The Capitulation indicator has a one week buy in window from the day
of its reading which was Jan 14, so the market may or may not go
higher before turning down .
Don is looking for a 9 month cycle low in late March early April. |
