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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 254.72+0.9%3:59 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (4954)1/16/2003 1:11:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
OT re GPS/PDA/cellphone/PC convergence:

Interesting article, thanks for posting it.

Cellphone capability will be a necessary function, though, because the data available from any memory inside the PDA or laptop, will not be realtime. I'll want to call up the Pizza place and ask whether they have the pineapple with bacon pizza I crave.

The other problem, and this will be the limiting factor in this process, is the lack of infrastructure installed by the telecom sercice companies. For instance, in Alaska, there is spotty service outside the Anchorage and adjacent Mat-Su Valley. This region has 2% of the State's land area, and 70% of the population. But even here, where population density is the same as the "lower 48", cellphones don't work at my house. Reliability is still the most important feature for market acceptance.

It's a step in the right direction, but not good enough. In chemistry terms, this reaction hasn't reached its activation energy level yet. It needs a better catalyst (reliable cellphone capability), or more heat (venture capital availability) applied, befor the reaction heats up.

As an aside, I note that this looks like a future niche for ARMHY, which would greatly expand the market they sell into. In this convergence, there will be one winner, and a lot of losers.
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