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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: TimeToMakeTheInvs who wrote (21835)	1/16/2003 5:12:51 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) of 57110

17:02 ET MSFT Microsoft trading lower (55.35 -0.62) -- Update -- The dividend, stock split, and penny upside have not been enough to offset the revenue miss and decline in unearned income, and the stock is trading lower to $53.90 after hours as a result. Note that the guidance is not quite as bad as it initially appears - though the full year guidance is below consensus, it is similar to prior guidance from MSFT - the full year was $32.2-32.6 bln revenues and is now $32.5 bln, the upper end of the prior range. And EPS was $1.89-1.95 but is now $1.90-1.93, a narrowing of the range. Analysts might well leave their estimates intact given the perception that MSFT is typically conservative with its guidance. 16:59 ET After Hours Indications The late session tone is mixed. S&P futures at 917, trade three points above fair value while the Nasdaq 100 after hours indicator is lower by 5.6 points. 16:56 ET MSFT Microsoft unearned revenue fell $295 mln (55.35 -0.62) -- Update -- Unearned revenue fell $295 mln in the Dec qtr; this was roughly in line with most forecasts, though some analysts had been speculating that a smaller decline or even an increase might be possible, so this might be a minor disappointment. 16:53 ET MSFT Microsoft issues mixed guidance (55.35 -0.62) -- Update -- Guides Mar qtr to $7.7-7.8 bln vs $8.0 bln Multex consensus; EPS to $0.47-0.48 vs $0.47 consensus. FY03 (Jun) to $31.9-32.1 bln vs consensus of $32.5 bln and EPS to $1.90-1.93 vs $1.97 Multex consensus ($1.98 First Call). 16:51 ET MSFT Microsoft reports EPS of $0.47 vs consensus of $0.46 and guidance of $0.45-0.46 (55.35 -0.62) -- Update -- Revenues were $8.54 bln vs the $8.61 bln Multex consensus and guidance of $8.5-8.6 bln.

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