jims101,
Just want to note I enjoy your discussion of the technicals of recent gold moves.
I have never done a study to see how well the XAU/HUI to POG lag shows on the charts, though I think it is showing now, but I have often noticed this lag in the gold stocks vs POG, particularly since 1996. This often presages a good move up, sometimes a headfake down, sometimes the real thing down, ggg. The key there is, it is more often a good sign.
In short term in the past, sometimes the HUI/XAU to POG lag is only noticeable via tape reading, but this is currently taking place over a much larger time period than normal, which would be from a day trade to a week or two.
There are various explanations for this long lag, all of which are guesses on my part. For one, the stocks may be subject to shorting/option pressures due to hedging of gold stocks against gold physical (futures/options) positions. This could be going on in two different directions from bear and bull gold camps.
Like trench warfare, things are being held up at one "battlefield" until one side or the other makes a breakthrough.
I have some other guesses, but am too bashful to present them at this time, when they are not yet fully dressed.
Just a mention here, that POG has been going up in triangles since the HUI formed a seven day flat line (NR-7), AND BTW, so far that is still a breakaway gap on the HUI from the first days of December...
Best,
Roebear |
