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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: keokalani'nui who wrote (305)	1/17/2003 1:41:58 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 897

<< But isn't the zetia/zocor combo the strategy for extending Zocor's life? >> Defending the cholesterol franchise around Zocor/Zetia is key to MRK (and SGP). However even though the combo of Zocor& Zetia will extend the lifetime (and revenue stream) beyond Zocor's patent expiration in 2006/7 a) 50% of revenue will go to SGP b) Zocor standalone will be generic and dirt cheap c) Competition for Zetia So in my opinion, it is likely that MRK's cholesterol franchise will erode. Zocor is estimated to be a 10B$ drug by 2006.What will make up for this? i heard about a year ago that it is MRK's plan to launch 6 new drugs during the next 2 years. If (big if) they all reach the market, each of those drugs needs to haul in just about 1.6B$ just ro make up for Zocor. This is why i think MRK will be mired with slow growth for a long time. In the pharma space long NVS and PFE and short MRK seems to be a winning combination. Sorry for the OT discussion in this thread.

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