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Strategies & Market Trends : YEEHAW CANDIDATES
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To: Sergio H who wrote (1076)1/17/2003 8:48:06 AM
From: Mike  Read Replies (1) of 23958
 
Godot,

I will have to have some conversations with people in the field and with MDCO to evaluate 2004. The Clevidipine product is one that may not be a blockbuster. I need to fully investigate this one but that is a crowded field. Who knows maybe it has dramatic benefits. I will let you know.

I think for 2004 and 2005 you only have to look at the expanded indications for use on Angiomax. If Angiomax is able to do what it is stated by the company for open heart surgery this could be the companies largest segment. If in fact the open heart market is shown to be clinically beneficial this market could be another $70-$90M opportunity. Next is the HITS market. If this shows clinically significant benefit would be a large market. Maybe in the range of $30M to start.

So the big driver are the expanded indications for the Angiomax product. How about these sales projections. I think they maybe conservative.

2005 $250-280M earnings ?
2004 $160-180M earnings ?
2003 $80-100M earnings -0.11 to -0.20

We will have to reevaluate the model as we look forward.
Let me know what you come up with on valuation model.

I just think this one is going to have legs but want to look at reality vs hype. Could be a major winner in 2003 if they do all the right things.

Mike
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