China The Fastest-Growing Oil Consumer In 2002, IEA Says
Friday January 17, 7:08 am ET
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency has upped its 2002 growth forecast for oil demand in China, saying it was likely the fastest-growing consumer of oil last year.
In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day, or 5.7%, to 280,000 b/d, .
The figures reflect the robustness of the Chinese economy and the growing importance of the mainland as a key market for oil consumption, analysts said.
"It's not a surprise," said Gordon Kwan, regional energy analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong. "Given the shape the global economy is in, China is the only bright spot. We expect it to become the world's second-largest oil market by 2008, surpassing Japan."
Much of the growing demand stems from power generation needs, as well as increased consumption of refined products such as gasoline and diesel, Kwan said.
"Entry to the World Trade Organization means that tariffs on automobiles will come down, and people are also becoming wealthier, so they're buying more cars," he said.
The IEA said Chinese statistical information pointed to continued strong refinery runs through the end of December, with refining throughput during the fourth quarter reportedly around record highs reached in September.
The agency also quoted China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association data that put refinery runs in November at 4.63 million b/d.
Demand for naphtha - a product derived from crude oil and used in petrochemical production such as plastics - in November may have exceeded a record high of 600,000 b/d in April, the IEA said.
In addition, demand for jet fuel and kerosene hit record highs of roughly 240, 000 b/d and 260,000 b/d in September and October on the back of increased consumption, the agency said.
-By Dermot Doherty, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-(0)20-7842-9488; dermot.doherty@ dowjones.com
In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day to 280,000 b/d, a growth rate of 5.7%.
(In an item that ran at 1153 GMT, misstated that 5.7% referred to the increase in the growth.)
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