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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Mike M2 who wrote (215395)	1/17/2003 3:10:31 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) of 436258

BEGBX and PSAFX I would appreciate the boards views on this little Q&A Haim has played currency very well and I hate betting against him. But I do not want to exit a good position for no reason. Thoughts from any and all appreciated as well He makes some good points (but the intentional attack seems a bit far fetched to me). From Haim on SI BEGBX, I may sell today after holding since November From Mish Why? What about PSAFX? From Haim EUR was around 0.98/0.99 in November as of now it is 1.067 to the USD. EZ will choke under their own stifling labor laws, deficits are there higher than in the US and the balance of trade is shrinking. All this said the EUR is prone to a correction after a 7%+ run. At market open I will place a sell on my BEGBX even if there may be 1% upside potential. Only 2 days ago EUR was at 1.052 and about 1.02 a month ago - the rise is to fast IMHO PSAFX not familiar with this fund holdings From Mish You dont think europe will be lowering interest rates? From Haim may be another 25 bp. The big problem there is Germany wages increased at an average of 4% or close to it last year, and they are running a budget deficit in excess of 3% of GDP. France is close to 3% and Italy are using smoke and mirrors to avoid the 3% ceiling. US is one of Europe big markets and even that Russia, CIS & CEE countries are improving they can not be the swing importers. IMHO the fast slide of the USD is intentional, done by hostile entities to damage the US credibility and economy. A soft slide of 1 to 2% a month would be beneficial but 6% to 7% a month is damaging. BWDIK Haim From Patron <<IMHO the fast slide of the USD is intentional, done by hostile entities to damage the US credibility and economy.>> Gee, you don't suppose that the $40B monthly current account deficit, massive projected Federal Budget deficit and an impending war have anything to do with it, do you?<G> From Haim Impeding war should be positive for the USD as oil prices will fall and a big chunk of the deficit will shrink and US credibility will rise. As to budget deficits Germany France Portugal Spain and Italy all have budget deficits of around 3% or even as high as 3.5% of GDP. The US budget deficit will be around 2 to 2.5% ........and that is a BIG difference. Further last year GDP in Germany was close to 0% growth and next year projected at 15 growth. The US may finish with a 2.5% GDP growth, and slightly higher next year. All those factors make up for the trade deficit. The most evil from the dual deficits are budget deficits A year ago the USD was 20% higher from were it is today ------- BIG difference From Patron <<Impeding war should be positive for the USD as oil prices will fall and a big chunk of the deficit will shrink and US credibility will rise>> ERRR, did you mean "The CONCLUSION of the impending war should be positive"?<G>

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