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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (25942)1/17/2003 7:14:15 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
Slider:

I strongly disagree with your latest prognostications.

Iraq war nor inevitable. And if it does occur your cakewalk scenario may be far too optimistic (Cannot imagine why you see Saddam is such a big threat if he can be so easily crushed). And an easy US victory might not last. US won first phase in Afghanistan but looks to be losing or at best stalemated in phase 2 of that conflict as anti-US guerilla war escalates rapidly.

Second a very favorably outcome is already assumed by the markets. This is in marked contrast to 1991. So even if everything goes smoothly (which I doubt) the market reaction may be less impressive than you imagine (unless the Dow sinks to 7000 before the attack)

I also doubt that Iraq is the primary driver of the gold bull. The dollar making new lows in case you have not noticed.

No question a favorable outcome in Iraq would knock POG down $20-30 from whatever high is reached. But talk of HUI 105 is way overdone in my judgement.
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