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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (15794)	1/18/2003 11:46:41 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) of 57684

I agree with what he said as far as msft goes. They surely aren't going away and sure as the sun will rise and set tomorrow, we'll still buy pcs and windows. What no one seems to want to say out loud is that it's possible that pc growth is what it is and it's not going to be a whole lot more......... after all we've already seen XP and that didn't cause a growth spurt. A new year is upon us and orders are not flying through the door (yet anyway) so it's not like corporations or consumers are in a hurry to replace those older pcs bought either right before or after y2k. Xbox and the other platforms were selling well and yet the stocks of the game makers are in horrid shape which makes me think that software sales in that area are slowing. Msft guided for less revs this year than last year despite a supposed need for upgrading, xbox/software sales and a relatively new OS. What will spur consumers/corporations to suddenly upgrade in mass? I don't know. Maybe it's just a slow grower with replacements and new sales not declining but not getting better and that's it........ what we see is what we got. In which case........ the stocks specific to that area that have held up well are priced too high for further upside, imo...... adding a 16 cent div is hardly a reason to think people will run out and buy the stock any more than putting out a new OS did for pc sales. That doesn't mean that ALL tech has no growth though. And there are plenty of old economy stocks that have held up well that are priced too high for upside as well, imo. If the bear takes down Softie, my guess is that the ones that have held up well in the past (like wmt) will be taken down too. I think msft will probably hold it's Dec 00 low unless they guide down again, but who knows? It's a stock that's owned by lots of institutions and if they decide to dump it, nothing is going to hold it up. TA

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