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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: Fishfinder who wrote (25986)1/19/2003 1:44:14 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
["I'm not sure how anyone can predict what the POG will do"]

...no one can predict anything in the future; but we all make those calls every single time we buy, or sell a single share of stock.

In cyclicals....you sure as hell had better have a read and a view on how geopolitical & economic events will unfold in the coming 12-24 months as was seen in the infamous JUNE SWOON in the OSX a couple years backs... cyclical stocks sell off when the "whiff" of change appears on the horizon; not when change finally arives and comes knocking at ones front door.

I think people are missing the most salient point in the Zulauf commentary - re:


[" Zulauf: I am not a stockpicker in this field. I would just go with names that don't hedge -- for instance, GoldFields, Meridian or Newmont. Buy them and hold them. They will all be 10-baggers over the next 10 years." ]

...key concept & keywords: "THE NEXT 10 YEARS"

Flawed concept... is buy & hold... go over to the boom, boom room of boom to bust and ask them how buying & holding OSX stocks over the last 2 years into the new paradigm, emergence of the multi-year Oilpatch bull has done ?

Does energy have a bright 10 year future ?

...hell yes.

Is it, or ANY other volatile cyclical sector a simplisitc buy & hold over a 10 year period ?

...hell no.
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