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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003
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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (103)1/19/2003 6:13:20 AM
From: Londo  Read Replies (1) of 666
 
The 30-year bond has exhibited some rather interesting behaviour over the past few months, with people bidding up bonds slowly, and then once every week, there's something that causes a huge flood of selling.

I still think bonds will be bought leading into this war, and then dumped afterwards.. money should be made both ways on this play.

The real wildcard here is the USD-EUR exchange rate. I really think France and Germany's economies are basket cases, but when you have the US government inflating the currency faster than the French and German economies go into the tank, it makes for a weird equilibrium. Also, it's probably a matter of time in 2003 before interest rates start getting jacked up again. Fed funds, however, are still 1.17% for the July contract and 1.4% for the November contract.
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