["So good, that the contrarian within me bets against what's said on a regular basis. You should do this too, and then tell us about it-- it's what Strictly Drilling is all about."]
...hanging onto, or buying more Gold here is not being a "contrarian" - quite the opposite. The majority here are still obviously very bullish and those who have recently just arrived from the broad market (the 2nd & 3rd wave of gold buyers) are still bullish as well.
Ask yourselves - exactly WHO is selling into these recent buyers in the HUI move of late - and WHY ?
One massive-shitload of goldstocks were already owned by someone and one helluva lot of stock was sold by these early movers to fuel the rapidity of this recent hot knife thru butter run from the POG pullback to $307 thru $350 and the HUI bottom of 92-95ish from May's absolute dumped upon 150 prior top.
It ought to scare the hell out of buy & holders here that this much Goldstock was once AGAIN dumped by those holding the retained profits to be able to sell it. This sector has already sold off 60+ points in 6-7 weeks and as much as 30+ points in a week. You can't be slow with the trigger finger folks with that kind of volatility... and when we just had the run we had.... you gotta ask who & why and look back to last May's top....got to.
It was the firstmovers into gold who are now selling and profit taking here (#1 because they can - ie: significant retained profits now being banked)... THEY are the contrarians, not the recent wave of newcomers to the Gold Sector who bought this move back to HUI 150, nor the other early-arrival bulls who are still holding.
I simply do NOT understand; given the very recent history of what happend in the last OSX upcycle and the Nat Gas Bubble 2 years ago on the original SI SD thread - how people can get upset when some of us - challenge and turn abruptly against the trend ?
The bottom fell out of both the OSX & Nat Gas plays during the peak of the controversy on the original SI SD and we had the same damn exact sentiment reactions then.... people took it personally that someone who was extremely bullish, could turn on a dime and exit directly into the peak of both positive thread sentiment here on SI, positive fundamentals, but also into the reversal of sentiment in the broad marketplace.
People do you remember Matt Simmons and his new paradigm call for an uninterupted multi-year Oilpatch boom ?
He couldn't have been more WRONG !.
It was, is and always will be - a volatile CYCLICAL sector. You can NOT blindly buy and hold these sectors.
You do NOT buy & hold cyclicals... you MUST - TRADE cyclicals to be successful.... buy & hold growth stocks; not cyclicals... if you have a buy & hold mentality... find the next young WalMart, or Starbucks and hold your heart out.
We've continually had huge violent short-term moves.
Anytime you hear "new paradigm", or "this time it's different", or you start seeing threadsters verbalizing the possibilities of historic speculative returns (ie: anything significantly over the pre-manipulated decade mean of $380 Gold - such as a return to 80-81's $800 POG & $50 Silver) - and you find yourself sitting near prior highs/or resistance levels within the sector.... you ought to dive for the sell button... as it has NEVER failed over the last 4 years here on these threads to be reflective of a good exit/profit taking point.
Both the OSX and Nat Gas turned on a dime - against the grain of existing thread sentiment - and those unpopular exit calls on the old SI SD were proven very correct. The few who dared speak of exiting the new paradigm Nat Gas Bull that December, let alone those who dared speak of "shorting" - were virtually flammed off the damn thread; but what happened ?
They were right.
What happened to Mr SupplysideEcon over on the Yahoo Rig thread during the infamous OSX June Swoon ?
Entire threads here were created by "blind bulls" who became emotionally connected to their stock, or sector positions and rode the Oilpatch bust cycle all the back way down...ie: the Boom, Boom to Bust Room. Even with the recent Nat Gas rally - the XNG is no where near it's prior highs of the days of the California Crisis & all the new paradigm mantra's.
Also, please take a deep breath.... I guarantee you, that no one on SI can move the Gold Stocks 1/10th of 1% with ANYTHING - ANYONE posts here.... it's a myth. There is NO reason to feel people are talking their own positions, or trying to sway the masses of threadsters here to their way of thinking - for personal gain. It can't happen.
Take a chill pill.
Not being a smart-ass and certainly not attacking anyone personally (no John Q Publics here imho - VBG) so don't take it so damn personal.
The single most valuable part of this thread and other quality sites is the diversity of thought and I think the most valuable stimulations to thought (the most profitable ones as well) have been borne out & proven over time in black & white right here on the original SI SD - to be the ones that result in tensions being frayed - during acknowledged present positive fundamentals and sentiment within the sector.
The one time that longs ought to be open to having their thinking challenged; is when they are most bullish - and when tensions flare when some switch direction... end of subject.
I often agree and also often disagree with posters like jimsoi, Iso, roebear and scores of others that I follow and enjoy having my thinking challenged by... its never personal and it's all just DISCUSSION... it's not life & death. No one here can take money out of your pocket, or put it in your pocket...YOU need to manage how that happens. Hopefully, occassionally posts do reinforce directions you are already thinking in and at other times - jar you out of complacency.
Lot's of Deja Vu all over again sentiment reactions here folks... that alone is a sell trigger imho... always has been, always will be for me and I'm serious when I talk about the SI Sentiment Menter indicator - I really use it. Anytime we get a couple of waves of new sector investors/threadsters and run to new highs AND have the lontime threadsters start dancing with visions of sugarplums in their heads.... Ring thy Ca$h Regi$ter !
If and when Gold ever morphs ito a speculative mania - I'd acknowledge that the bulk of the blow-off top run will occur in a very short time frame... but, the odds of speculative mania's occuring are remote, let alone correctly calling one.
The hero's of the last Gold Bull were not the one's who exited at $700-$800.... those were speculative gamblers; no more savy than the guy that hits at the Roulette Wheel, or Black Jack Table... and the greater number of hero's during this cycle won't be those hanging around at the top, hoping/gambling that we see another specultive mania-blow off top; it will be those early movers who got in at the bottom of the cycle and exited at the first hint of mania-itis.
We've had doubles and triple all across this sector directly into the face of the worst Bear Market of most of our lifetimes.
How the hell can anyone NOT be tempted to bank those kinds of returns in this kind of market ?
HELLO !?!?!?
- just my .02 and one last thought here.
Lots & lots of threadsters here have made a signifcant amount of money in Gold over the last 2 years and in the Oilpatch the 2 years prior to that... if there is one lesson that we all should have learned here; it's - NEVER, EVER - NEVER; put your self into an emotionally oriented state - to where you end up giving it all back.
As much, if not more money will be made & certainly more will be "retained" by taking profits too soon... in violent cyclical sector plays...and shame, shame, shame upon any of the oldtimers who have been here for 3-4 years and didn't learn from how sentiment played out on these threads and how the tops were formed in the last OSX & Nat Gas cycles... and how fast, soooooo many gave much, if not most of all those profits back.
good luck and good posts all. |
