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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26045)1/19/2003 3:56:22 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
One more TA point to consider:

The recent gold run is best classified as a rounded bottom according again to Bulkowski (vs a cup and handle since their was no 30% appreciation prior the cup). In this formation the price objective is typically hit before any significant pullback. In this scenario the objective would be 330-250=80 add to the breakout point for 410 POG. A rounded bottom can still have a handle according to Bulkowski so there may be some confusion over the present POG trend.

Back when oil was $12 and it moved to $18 again we had a similiar sentiment change. Calls for $21-25 oil were no longer laughed at and considering were we had come from it seemed that quite a few were downright bullish. Of course oil went on to almost $40 before any significant pullback. I would liken the present price of gold to be about $18-20 oil from a sentiment standpoint.

A move back to $330 to $340 POG would not surprise me at all here, but I don't see another move back to $300 to $310.

The first time the HUI moved to 154 from 60 (Dec 2001) we had a 50% correction back to 92. I guess I find it unlikely that we'll give back the entire recent breakout and then some before going onto new multi-year highs long term.

As always Slider, I appreciate the contrarian nature that you bring to this thread. That is by far your best attribute (in addition to your often correct calls <G>).

I am somewhat scared to be holding even a 33% position since gold stocks have not followed POG to new highs, but at least in the short term I remain cautiously optimistic until my TA points are violated.
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