Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: kingfisher who wrote (26070)	1/19/2003 9:57:27 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (3) of 36161

I'm beginning to think we aren't going to have a war with Iraq - despite much bluster to the contrary. We've only got 1/4 of the troops we would need (135,000 now vs. about 500,000 in part I), and most importantly our main hawk Rumsfeld has publicly said he would back granting immunity from prosecution for war crimes to Hussein & co. if they bail out. The world economy and oil supply situations are too perilous at the moment, and world opinion is hardly in favor of war. Should that happen gold and energy would likely tank, while fluffy tech & financial shares would rise. The scenario seems likely enough to bear close watching. Sharp PS What would you do if your economy were hanging by a thread, and the uncertainty and costs of war might push it over the edge? What would you do with a massive energy crisis brewing, your primary target is sitting on 4% of world oil production and is in close proximity to another 20% - and has chemical weapons that could really screw up production? Throw in Venezuela to spice up the equation. How would you spin the whole "it's not because of the oil" story, with oil dry North Korea thumbing their nose at the US on the world stage, while developing weapons of mass destruction and long range missiles? How would you secure the cities without massive casualties, in an atmosphere of zero tolerance to US combat deaths? You really couldn't just lay siege and starve millions - that wouldn't play well in the international press. Too many messy issues, and not-so-subtle indications we don't act soon....

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