Subj: Re:Price action???
Date: 97-07-27 11:28:08 EDT
From: Skipard
There have been 2 constant sellers of BLTI for over a year.They have been selling,replacing,selling,replacing,as stock goes up they sell,when it goes down they buy.Up until FDA last week,they had a very good strategy.I can't fault their reasoning,mainly because they have been correct.But this time it is a entirely different picture.Before last week BLTI had a market cap of $40-$50mm ,no sales,no earnings,no news,no real sponsorship.It would go up,down,up down,ran for wrong reason on PLSIA announcement.IMO this approval is major league.Dermatologist have more money than dentits.Go to PLSIA board and see all of the comments on why dentists will not spend $40,000 for a laser,until it is proven effective,and the patients want it.Have you ever had skin cancer,know anyone that has?Warts removed,lines removed,crows feet removed,skin ablation? This is going to be a very large market,and after numerous presentations,the show in Spet,we are going to see orders building,distribution deals announced,increased demand from Europe,Asia and right here at home.The LasreBrush is going to kick in in a hurry in the 4th qtr.We are going from the outhouse to the penthouse in a hurry.A number of people have said to me,I am bored with BLTI,I am not making any money in this market,I am bored,frustrated,etc.But here we are,and people want to sell?? Makes a lot of sense when what we have waited for is here,why leave now?It ain't over before it has begun<>
.There are a number of small money managers,hedge funds who are just now willing to look at BLTI because we have approval.I believe that in next 2-3 months we are going to get paid very well for our investment in BLTI.My gues on pricing for the laser is $40,000+ or minus.They have the production capapbilities to turn these out in volume,as they ram.p up,their costs will come down,margins will go up,and the company will start to turn profitable very quickly,by the 4th qtr is my guess,and then we can start looking at this on a multiple babis.<>
Want to play a game???Let's assume company is on a burn rate of $275,000 per month,I made this number up,but follow me.I assume the comapny could be close to break even with the Orbis(german) contract alone.Now add dermalase @ $40,000 per copy,they might gross $25,000 per machine.Say they do 20 machines per month.20x 25,000x 12 moths=$6,000,0000.Assume they sell 250,000 LaserBrushes @80 gross=$20,000,000mm.That could give us $26,000,000 gross which could leave $15,600,000/13.5m shares=$1.15.$1.15x 20=$23 per share.Im nuts so divide it in half=$11 1/2.I think we will see it in 12 months. |
