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Technology Stocks : SOTA A Leader in NT Financial Applications Software

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To: S. A. Foster who wrote (7)7/27/1997 12:09:00 PM
From: Alan A. Hicks   of 21
 
The IBM deal announced last week is another piece of good news for
SOTA. Unfortunately the press release that SOTA put out never made
it to Dow Jones news wire. (Dow Jones chooses what they will put on
their news wire. Also technology companies often make sales
alliances that do not amount to much.)

But, I think this deal is more than just a recognition by IBM that MAS 90
is the market leader in the mid-range. SOTA does not have to rely on
IBM sales force to make sales. IBM will provide leads to SOTA's VARs
generated from IBM's three large telemarketing call centers. All
leads that fall into the mid-range market will be referred to a local
SOTA VAR where the customer is located. The VAR only has to sign up
for the program and sell IBM hardware with that sale.

IBM will provide financing not only for the hardware but also the
software and all the VAR's service and implementation costs.
Customers tend to buy more up front if it can be financed as a
package. IBM is also planning a joint seminar series together with
a marketing program that will use some sophisticated new data mining
techniques that IBM has developed. VARs that have already been
involved with IBM on other software products have said this program
has worked very well providing good qualified leads for them.

The program is part of a well thought out strategy by IBM that
differentiates IBM from Dell, Compaq, Gateway etc that focuses on
customer service. The problem for IBM in the mid-range market they can
not easily service these relatively small accounts the way a local VAR
can. With this program IBM expects to sell more hardware with a service
focus in a way that the other hardware vendors can not. IBM wants
to leverage their investment in call centers, advertising, and
marketing to strengthen their position in the PC market. It makes
sense for IBM and will strengthen SOTA's VAR channel.

Meanwhile, SOTA shares have made a clear breakout from their 9 month
downtrend, And, in classic fashion pulled back to its breakout point
in the $11 3/4 to $12 1/4 range just above its 200 moving average.
Volume patterns continue positive with higher volume on up days and
lower volume on declining days. There apparently was a very sloppy
seller on Thursday of about 10 to 15,000 shares which was thrown on
the market without regard to what price they received. It traded
down to $12 which quickly attracted new buying bringing it back to
$13 1/4 on Friday. This tends to confirm the idea that $12 is the
new support level. After some consolidation, a break above $14 should
move the stock to the $15 -$16 level.

Longer term, there are several positive underlying trends that have
not been really recognized by the market. 1. The outlines of
SOTA's vertical market strategy are just beginning to become visible
which could make Acuity a huge success over the next year as vertical
market partnerships are able to provide complete solutions based on
Microsoft technology. 2. The year 2000 problem will impact the
mid-range much more than most people realize over the next two years
3. SOTA is increasing its already aggressive new product and upgrade
strategy 4. A new focus on services will provide 50% annual growth
in service revenue over the next few years. 5. The VAR channel is in
the heathiest position it has ever been and growing stronger
relative to all of SOTA's competition. I will go into more
detail on each one of these points over the coming weeks.
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