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Gold/Mining/Energy : A to Z Junior Mining Research Site
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To: 4figureau who started this subject1/20/2003 10:30:06 AM
From: 4figureau  Read Replies (2) of 5423
 
UBS Warburg:

Speculators, already very long, remain the dominant force in the gold market. While we are seeing light physical demand returning this physical interest remains a small fraction of ‘normal’ seasonal demand.

Gold: COTR: Very little fresh information to report from Friday’s COTR data release. Comex trading speculators remain very long of gold although they marginally reduced their positions in the week to Tuesday 14 January. As at that date large speculators were net long 6.52 million ounces of gold down 100k on the previous week. Non reportable positions fell by 200koz to leave the total traders position net long 11.27 million ounces, 3 lacs smaller than the previous week. Since last Tuesday, Comex open interest has increased by 300koz, most of which occurred on Thursday, and probably associated with fresh longs.

Trading: In New York on Friday, gold had a choppy end to the week. Speculators were mostly seen on the buy side but the metal found decent resistance around the $358.50 level. Despite this, gold ended the week on a positive note closing at 356 / 356.75. Liquidity remained a major concern to market makers and interbank spreads remain very sensitive to movements in the spot price. In Asia, interest in gold was restricted by the US public holiday and trading was consequently very thin. Good offers were noted around
the $357/oz reportedly from Asian physical selling. In early European hours gold came under early pressure from some spec profit taking but remained around the $356 level.

View: Gold will likely trade quietly today due to the one-day US holiday. Market activity will effectively cease after the London PM gold fixing at 15:00.

1m 3m 6m 1y 3y 5y 10y
USD/XAU Impl Opt Vol (Mids) 20.0 19.0 17.75 16.7 14.3 13.4 13
Gold Fwd Rates 1.32 1.27 1.15 0.99


Silver: COTR: The COTR for silver shows that the metal continues to struggle to materially rally despite both the strength of gold and the weakness of the US dollar. The net speculative long position fell by 8 million ounces to stand at 191 million ounce while silver slipped by 4 cents.

Trading: In New York, silver trading was completely uneventful again, mirroring flows seen in gold.

View: Silver will benefit from the weaker US dollar (as will all dollar-denominated commodities), but since silver’s applications are largely industrial in nature the metal will continue to be hit by slowing economic activity.

thebulliondesk.com
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