I anticipate large COTR gold longs will remain for several weeks, if not months, thus confusing the typical thinking among experts... all fundamentals for the USdollar are deteriorating
NOTICE THAT THE TRADE GAP FOR NOVEMBER SWELLED !!!
ALL EXPERTS EXPECTED THE GAP TO REACT TO THE LOWER VALUED DOLLAR
NOT ME, BEEN HARPING ON THIS SINCE SPRING
with the USDollar now 18% lower than Feb2002, still the trade gap widens, to the consternation of those following it
chalk up a big one for the Jackass
the US trade gap will not react to a lower dollar
the US economy has dismantled the internal mechanisms by which to produce a reactive rectifying response
for 30 years we have shipped our mfg base to Asia
economists continue to get this wrong, since they are incompetent simpletons, hellbent of fallacious thinking as they ignore all the internal dynamic changes made in the last bull expansion cycle
these guys just dont do much homework, too busy soaking up adulation in the media and enjoying icon status
they dont do much real solid quantitative analysis anymore, and when they do, they use false assumptions, obsolete data, and incomplete models
bad men, very bad men, bad bad ugly bad
the combined trade gap continuation and the federal escalating deficit will breed the foundation for a monstrous monetary crisis
THAT IS WHAT THE GOLD PRICE IS TELLING US
when the commercials are aligned against the emerging new bull longterm trend, they will eventually lose, as they succumb to the greater market dynamics
I expect these commercial longs to remain wrong long for a long long time
thus producing a much more peaceful stable and reliable bull rally
expect the unexpected this year
and all are expecting gold volatility
sorry, I dont see that happening at all
more like instability under #330, stability over #330
I see new lines in the sand drawn
first it was #330, now #360
next #400
/ jim |
