A View of The Next Ten Years - Bull or Bear? Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : A View of The Next Ten Years - Bull or Bear?

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To: Investor2 who wrote (11)	1/20/2003 12:50:09 PM
From: Thomas V.	Read Replies (1) of 14

My concern with the stock market is that we jubilantly chased the rainbow for 17 years and finally caught it in early 2000. Now we need a new rainbow, but there won't be one for years (or a generation). A government stimulus will help but there is still much overhang on the market and the economy. My bet and the best case is a trading market with maybe +/- 30% swings between overbought and oversold for some years. Worst case is an economy that tanks and a market right along with it that could rival the Great Depression, due to loss of consumer confidence and continued lack of capital spending. A sudden end to the terrorism and war threat will give us a substantial rally but still will not change demographics which is the biggest overhang all, with projections of net redemptions in the stock market due to retirements of boomers in 10-15 years (pension funds and IRAs, 401Ks). The stock market will discount this fact years before it happens.

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