P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: pressboxjr who wrote (25051)	1/20/2003 2:41:45 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) of 30712

Jr....you posted that "bearish three outside down" on dec 14th at nasdaq 1362...... it gave minus 35pts to 1327....but there was 105pts of up to 1467 off that "bearish" formation....don't know how that qualifies as the 'handwriting was on the wall"....we went "up"... i saw the bearish engulfing as it was happening friday morning....i know what it means.... Message 18457187 as far as that 1700.....that MSFT and IBM selloff might make that seem less likely...but since spx max p was 900....da boyz were shooting for that anyway....they just had a good excuse to screw around for options.... but when i made my new plan for 03.....i posted it early december around nasdaq 1420's for 100 down and 300 upside potential despite the big bearish candle after the 1521 top... despite that candle then....we only did go down 100 pts to 1327.....and ramped back up.....so that map i made was indeed working and i knew to "think" long right up to the important earnings coming this week....and i know enough not to "hold" anything into big company earnings because its instant toast if you are wrong..... so after what happened friday.....just gotta step back now and see what changed.....and i'm already on that as i saw that engulfing happen early friday and the bradley stuff.... since i won't post my map like last year.....if i did...you would know what i'm talking about...but it doesn't matter anyway....95% who saw the retrace working last year still didn't believe it....<ggg> but when i first made that map...and in the post i made early december....i called it worst case upside.....and because i know these rallies are bogus crap and 800 is coming.....i figured earnings will never get it there....so my conclusion for that target could only be one thing...a war rally......and MSFT and IBM just confirmed that...because earnings sure won't get it there..... i also noted that if it got that high....it would be as good as shorting nasdaq 5000....because after that type blowoff top it would be all downhill into 2004......with only august 02 like ramps left in a big downtrend..... so 1700's would be one last gasp blowoff type deal before another very nasty long downtrend.....after the march 2000 top....you notice that the first of the 3 big bear rallies didn't start till april 01!!!...a year later....if 1700 did hit....the next big rally wouldn't be till 04..... so...now the problem...the bearish engulfing...... in this recent rally....i see two dark cloud covers...bearish that failed...and the one you mentioned above in this post that only lead to 35 down but 105 up.....so... many bearish candle patterns failed....why....because its been a bull trend where bear candles mean less..... now going back to the theme...1700 would be a blow off type deal....and after what happened friday that formed a second bearish engulfing weekly candle.....i went back to see if there were candles like that before.....i found two weekly engulfing bearish candles that failed when nasdaq was around 4000-4300.....right before a "blowoff top" to 5000.....imagine that...one last screwing of the shorts before the lights went out.....<gg> another thing i learned over the years....its wise to fade a popular concensus on the message boards.....because the boards are filled with "text book" t/a readers all seeing the same things.....a good example was watching how so many went against the retrace....calling the sept 01 lows the lows....then calling the 1192 "the" bottom.....calling june a "low" and looking for a july rally to 1500-1600....got the dump to 1192 instead.....this thread was dead while that retrace was doing the most damage because very few believed it....then when the dump started and it looked like 1192 would not hold....this thread got popular as more realized they were wrong.....but most jumped on board right at the end.....then a rally ensued.....most didn't believe that rally.....but things changed....and few changed with it....it got so bad....i even had to fade my own thread in november and january....and bulls were running for the hills also in november-jan..... back from 98-00 it was easy to fade bears.....once the realization hit in 2000 that the bull was dead....from then till 02 it was easy to fade bulls....the sept 01 rally started to change the whole tone....both bulls and bears could not believe that rally....bears were getting toasted shorting it....and bulls were too afraid to buy it..... that set in place the worst part of the bear market....where both bears and bulls will be toasted in similar fashion before this bear is done.....but mostly bulls.... during 02...the bulls got the worst of it.....but bears got scared out on many sharp ramps along the way.....the end of the year was bad for both again....as just like sept 01....the bears kept shorting a rising market and bulls were too afraid to buy it and hold as they were running for the hills..... so that brings us to today.....reading up on the boards.....general concensus is the party is over....the highs are in...march low coming.....its automatic now.......everybody is on the same page.....bears can now short with no fear....longs can just walk away till march and jump on the low for a nice rally...... for me.....i hate being on the same side with the crowd for obvious reasons.... so i'll stick to my plan.......because of what happened friday.....i'll watch my worst case for the bull scenario which i already posted....and using the bradley and the new formed candles......for the next few weeks i'll be cautious and just still grab an intraday short or crap long to keep me busy.....i would hate to be loaded short if saddam goes into exile...like i said before....i'm planning my year on a march-april high or low and the big play comes then.....if i can't determine what that will be soon....i'll just play the intraday stuff till a clear signal forms.....i have the borders sealed for the bull case with the worst case upside....and the bottom target i think negates it all.....we are not there yet.... going into the final death grips of the big bad bear.....both bulls "only" and bears "only" are going to be in a state of denial when they are on the wrong side....best examples are the sept 01 and oct 02 ramps.... my only goal is to be a bear or bull at the "right times only".....and that takes an open mind to do it...... thats why i started this thread......because theres very few open minded thinkers on the threads....most slant their post to the position they are in at the time and miss the obvious things that show they are wrong.....thats why the threads make a good fade most of the time..... most are seeing the market with one eye open and the other closed.... one open to see what they want to see...one closed to what could make them wrong..... i have both eyes open.....and always will.....because we are about to enter into the final stages here.....the walk right into the bears cave.....and very few will be walking out of that cave alive..... but the ones with both eyes wide open will have the best chance to survive.....

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