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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 55.11

-2.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: John McCarthy who wrote (7780)	1/21/2003 11:55:33 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) of 52153

Looks like good results for ALT, although I'm not sure what Measurements of exercise tolerance and aortic distensibility proved to be more variable than anticipated for a study of this size and were not reportable really means. Getting statistical significance in a population of this size (17) means the drug effect must be pretty considerable. Be nice to see the numbers, though. ALT has the potential to be a 50-bagger (or even more) from these levels. Not many public companies you can say that about. (Of course the chance of them actually being a 50-bagger is pretty small - I'd guess of the order of 1 in 50. <g>) However, I can't think of other public biotechs that I'd give odds anywhere near that. As always, the question is do you buy them now, or do you give up the first double/triple and buy them after a successful trial announcement. I compromise with a small stake (that I actually added to a bit this morning) to maintain my interest. Their presentation at H&Q is still available and worth looking at - they sprung for the slide-show. Peter

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