Jorj,
Most everything that can be shorted has a fair degree of news risk. I think IDBE is still a good candidate, getting ahead of itself. Wondering if the blitz is to get a good price for an offering. ALKS, but Risperdal Conta will probably be approved eventually. Good regulatory news could really hurt, otherwise it looks vulnerable. A watchful eye and tight stops suggested on all these. Had you asked me last week, I would have said AGIX, but they just gotten beaten up today for announcing an offering. AGEN is starting to pay the price for the same move (I am short from $11 there via sold calls; waiting for time premium to erode with a fair degree of comfort). Both may have some downside left, but have already moved significantly. CEPH priced for perfection, IMO.
If you are expecting a bounce, and CHIR gets to $41, I would dare to short it into earnings late this month (29th I think, but double check my fallible memory). I'd feel safer shorting it after earnings.
VXGN if you can get shares, but it's on that UPC11830 (I think that's the code; the one that says shares are hard to come by), and the options are expensive. I am short via naked calls.
One could argue that the good news has been priced into AMGN, and that it will move according to sector favoritism for a while.
Of all these, I think IDBE has the most downside in it, and I would consider it my best idea, but it seems to be a bit of darling right now.
I'll be curious to hear your thoughts, as always.
Cheers, Tuck |
