One last idea is RNA. Again, most of the move is already done, but a powerful competitor has launched with aggressive pricing versus RNA's only revenue generator, and there is mucho intellectual property risk there.
IDBE recently won a subcontract from vaccine company worth $6 million bucks, fixed. No royalties or milestones. the PR said they were looking at other RFPs for bioterror related work. That's the only line in the press release I can see that could possibly justify the speculative gain since then. And jeez, it would all be preclinical . . . I don't think this justifies market cap increase of 15%. I'm not sure what their burn rate is, but they are about to launch PIII trials, so I would expect it to go up. I like that product -- FluEnsure, which could get the old and young segment of the influenza market that MEDI's FluMist was not approved for, because the safety of FluEnsure looks better for the same efficacy -- but it will cost them for a while before it helps them. They had ~$26 million in cash last quarter. My gut says an offering could come at any time, and profit taking would ensue then, if not before.
Cheers, Tuck |
