consider the fact gold went to $800 in 1979
yes, and then almost as fast, it went down, down and down for the next 20 years or so...
For years, i had fun with the gold bugs until last year. I even acknowledged that gold may have a chance to gain substantially as an investment (rather than speculative) instrument. Today, I have even traded a few of the miners PAAS, HL and forgot the other one... (and still hold HMY long)
How far will gold go this time around... I do not know, I am not good at predictions, so I do not even try. However, there are enough arguments to take a look at gold with a sustained move up. imo the main argument for gold is the weakness in the USD and lack of alternative currency. I do not believe in the EURO, nor the YEN.
.... but, what about the YUAN ? could it become a "competitive" currency ? and if so, would the Chinese at large become a factor in the price of gold ? (both as a central bank and as the public saving buying gold ?)
you know, the baby boomers were (and still are) a segment of the population that really creates and move economic ëvents" but even the BB is nothing compared to 1.2 billion Chinese that one of these days in the not too distant future they could become more than just propaganda... they may actually buy a bunch if stuff...
When China (not if) becomes a strong economy with a consumer as powerful (if not more than ) the US consumer...
will gold shine even more ? or... will the YUAN be the currency that could dethrone the US Dollar ? as a "reserve" ? sounds wild yes ? but possible eh ?
We shall see.... but for now, gold may enjoy the ride...
economist.com
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China's economy
Jan 16th 2003
From Economist.com
China's economy, the world's second-largest (by 1998 GDP measured at purchasing-power parity), has been gradually opening up since Deng Xiaoping introduced market reforms 20 years ago. In December 2001, China joined the World Trade Organisation; recently it has also opened up highways, established (informal) business links with Taiwan, and invested in new industries such as biotechnology. There have even been moves towards an open capital market.
But reforms have a long way to go: private firms face numerous obstacles, banks are a mess (and rural credit co-operatives even more so) and inefficient state-owned enterprises urgently need restructuring. Unemployed workers, after years of being promised an “iron rice bowl,” have taken to protests and riots. Still, the economy seems on track to grow by 7-8% in 2003–04, at least according to official figures.
economist.com |
