Editorial: To avoid war
Rival Iraq agendas converge
Bee Editorial Staff
Published 2:15 a.m. PST Tuesday, January 21, 2003
Intensified movement from several directions suggest the possibility that the crisis over Iraq may soon reach a decisive point with two potential outcomes. One would be a U.S.-led armed attack against Saddam Hussein's regime. The other would be the dictator's exit, through his voluntary exile or an internal coup, thus avoiding war. That intensity is likely to heighten as next Monday draws nearer. That's the deadline for United Nations weapons inspectors to submit a report on what they have found after two months and whether Iraqi officials show any sign of cooperating as they have promised.
In that context, no party to the standoff -- especially the Bush administration -- should take any abrupt step that could short-cut the process, imperfect as it is. It's also important for public opinion, here and abroad, not to overreact to the high-decibel war of nerves. It's an important if unsettling part of simultaneously keeping pressure on Baghdad to comply with its commitments to the United Nations, on the inspectors to move as quickly as possible to reach a firm conclusion about Iraq's response and on the White House not to ignore rising opposition to unilateral U.S. action.
A flurry of diplomatic activity among Iraq's neighbors, principally Saudi Arabia and Turkey, suggests a concerted effort in the region to avoid war by inducing Saddam and his top aides to give up power in return for immunity from prosecution. According to some reports, there also are efforts to urge Iraqi security forces to oust Saddam.
Whether either scenario will play itself out remains unclear. Indeed, senior U.S. officials continue to send out the message that they could accept either Saddam's violent overthrow or his voluntary exile, but don't believe either will happen and thus are prepared to remove him by force.
One element of pressure that may be working is a budding antiwar movement in this country. Its existence, together with polls showing strong support for removing Saddam by force only if it's backed by the U.N. Security Council and U.S. allies, seems to have had an impact in the White House. Even administration hawks now say, perhaps with more conviction than earlier, that a peaceful resolution remains the president's first choice.
Some people don't believe that. Count us among the skeptics. But it's a reminder that this administration, whatever its most fervent desires, remains attuned to popular concerns.
Those concerns are likely to heighten in the days ahead. But hope for a peaceful outcome lies in all sides maintaining pressure while waiting for the U.N. inspectors' report on Monday. Here's hoping it offers enough new hope to keep the conflict within the realm of diplomacy, where it belongs. |
