Hi Claude -
"Don't want to rain on the parade, but we are in a bear market."
In the short term, I can buy that reasoning: I've often posted that the price will be short-term volatile. However, at some point, DMX will have earnings; at that point, it's just a question of the multiple you assign.
Wolf has posted many in-depth analyses with the Pennsaid sales breakout by percentage of market penetration.
There's a very good (and conservative) case for earnings of CDN $1/shr within 2 years, on Pennsaid revenues alone.
In addition, there has been considerable number-running on the upfront achievable with FDA approval. For example, the oft-quoted example of Celebrex, pre-approval : US $25 million. Post-approval: $250 million.
No one is suggesting that Pennsaid will achieve that multiple. But the thinking has been that it should be at least in the US $75 million range.
That will give DMX approximately CDN $1.50 in the kitty, with a reasonable expectation of earnings of CDN $1.00 in a couple of years.
This is aside from any other potential (ie., WF10).
As you point out, it's a Bear Market. Fair enough. But I think the double-digit figure is a reasonable expectation - even if it's low double-digits.
Regards,
Jim |
