OT
I thought that's what worst case scenarios were for --not to delineate the most likely results, but the potential risks.
In an attempt to negate Jacob's argument with a stroke of a mouse, you state:
(1) We can leave and Iraq will not "collapse into chaos." The Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis will divide the country and their antagonism will be moderated by their need to look over their shoulders at the US and its military.
Did the British supervise post-partition India to prevent the slaughter that took place between Hindus and Muslims? Did fear of foreign intervention prevent the Hutus and Tutsis from going at it in Rwanda? I do not pretend to understand the ethnic rivalries in Iraq nor can I assess the likelihood of the US helping to broker a successful transition to democracy, as is being attempted in Afghanistan.
2) Our "client" states, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, etc., are not really our "clients" and their militaries will not allow them to be overthrown because of US policy.
They will not be overthrown because of US policy, but they may be due to their own policies. Usually, it is their own militaries that do the overthrowing.
3) We will not "lose the War on Terrorism." The rest of the world understands the message of Afghanistan. That message says that if the US identifies an address for terrorism, that address will be bombed into oblivion. Most of the people and nations of the world understand that the Bin Ladens have nothing to offer but destruction and a distorted vision of a return to the 7th Century.
Well that's the good news. The bad news is that it may be extraordinarily costly, not only in dollar costs but to our civil liberties and the principles of an open society that we stand for. Whatever we may think about Islamic fundamentalism, it is a powerful voice in a world that regards its traditional cultures as threatened by materialistic and corrupt Western values. It is a reaction to an excessive rate of "modernization" that has not been accompanied by greater social justice or decreased relative poverty.
We do not even understand this message, and until we do, we will be powerless to counter it. |
