As you can see, the long term numbers have quite a ways to fall. At big lows like we saw in July and October, all the numbers hit zero. In interim lows, the ST and MT usually get to zero at least intra-day.
you can see the same things using these 6 sto's....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d20020531,20030122][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!h.02,.20!c50!c100!c200!c150!b200!c125!c175!f][iLh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Lh89,34!Lh45,17!Li180,68]&pref=G
you can see the slow and fast giving possible buy signals...but that "trailing" full didn't AV....so now it can just drift down for a few more days to oversold....trailing fulls like this when the slow and fast reach OS first can be long killers for those who play the buy signals off the fast or slow and don't see the trailing full still has more to go.....
the flip side of that is when the trailing full AV's and then it becomes a short killer......
so using sews calls....he was getting class 1 buys off the fast or slow....but that trailing full has him thinking of that negated signal.....
also.....using brookes thing.....you can see on the slow 89 we are miles from oversold.....and the fast 180 is just drifting along that 50 line.....
that slow 45 really toasted lots of longs to 1108....thats when most never thought the 1192 july bottom would break....the slow...fast...full were all sitting OS looking like buy signals....but that slow 45 d-blowed and for a longer downtrend that lead to the 1108.....
thats one thing about those other systems....AV or DB can mess them up.....bulls were running for the hills with sell signals in november and early jan.....but AV was showing more up.....
bulls thought bottoms wouldn't break because everything showed buy signals when you get near bottoms.....but DB when it shows up....gives more down few see coming....
depending on the sto...long range or short term....you can get a read on the strength of the AV or DB....
just looking at the chart....short term....its getting oversold....but that trailing full still has more down room....thats why today was weak.....don't know what effect AH will have yet.....but those looking for a G&C.....it could happen because of that trailing full.....
looking longterm.....the bullish case....you have that slow 45 getting OS....and that slow 89 still above 50....if that slow 45 turns up....that will give the slow 89 AV for what could be that march high.....
the bearish case......that fast 180 is right at d-blow....and if that slow 89 doesn't AV and breaks down....theres your case for a deeper dump into a march low....
as you can see...it can go either way right now....nothing confirmed yet....
but you will have the slow 5-5...fast 10-10...full 14-3 and slow 45 all getting into OS......
and you have the slow 89 near AV....and fast 180 near DB....
right now the odds favor a longer term ramp into march...because of those four oversold sto's moving up would set off the slow 89 AV.....for longer term up....
for the bear case...all those four oversold sto's have to do is start getting DB on the way up....that will play into the hands of the fast 180 DB and send this down to the oct lows easy...... |
