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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (16240)	1/22/2003 9:21:16 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) of 78653

Portfolio update << Stock at new low. At some point this giant will turn around. (I hope.) >>. You got a better price than I did. I think DCX is extraordinary cheap and there is a lot of negative sentiment build in the stock price, so i hope that this position will be profitable for both of us. I have used the recent weakness for shopping: CVX: swapped my mildly profitable position in MRO for CVX. I don't like MRO weak performance in the upstream business which is why I am interested in oil stocks to begin with. While production has held reasonably steady with MRO, the Oil reserves have been going down for many years as evident by the % of developed oil reserves as a total. This number is now up to 90% from the mid 70% range a few years ago. This negative trend (despite some acquisitions) will lead to sharply lower production soon, as MRO cannot replace depleting upstream assets. CVX has a much better upstream record and similar dividend yield which may lead to better performance LT. FLEX: I bought 1/2 position in FLEX. This is a contract manufacturer with strong position in China and good balance sheet. If tech returns, so will FLEX. I'll wait for my customary 4 weeks and the next quarterly report before I establish a full position (if at all) SHR: I established a position in SHR, the German Schering. This is a well managed mid size pharma company, with a forward PE of about 16.5. Dividend yield about 3%. I also like Novartis (NVS) and PFE but decided to invest in SHR because of it has comparable growth, higher dividend yield and as a mid size player takeover appeal. AZ: The german insurer Allianz again has become cheap because of weakness of the German stock market (DAX). I'm in again - at least for a swingtrade.

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