My $0.02 about risks and consequences of the Iraq war.
As the Iraq war issue is gradually unfolding, it's more and more clear that if Bush administration decides to start the war in Iraq in spite of the strong opposition from UN, Allies, the countries around the world and the majority of the American people, the following high risks or consequences are inevitable, as I can see:
- U.S. will lose its major western allies and may even
has serious risk to turn the allies into hostile
countries. NATO may be disbanded and EU may form their
own military organization.
- U.S. will lose all Arab allies. The Arab countries and
the people there will become hostile or more hostile to
the U.S.
- Once the war is started, can Bush & Co. keep it under
control? or will it ignite another major world war? How
much we can trust Bush & Co on this? Note, our world
has many thousands of nuclear warheads available for a
war this time.
- U.S. will lose its moral leadership and friends around
the world. This in turn will make Americans doing
business or travel abroad very difficult and dangerous,
not to mention the political and diplomatic
sufferings.
- Huge war expenses is a Big drag on the already weak U.S.
economy.
- As the invasion in Iraq starts, the risk of revenge
attacks on the U.S. from Iraq or from other "terrorists"
are greatly increased. Even Donald Rumsfeld pointed out
that the enemies have learn not to fight against the U.S.
head-on, they are very likely to make attacks inside the
U.S. No body including the FBI and CIA can guarantee that
another 9/11 or bigger attacks can be prevented. The war
will put Americans' lives and properties in much higher
risks. Once a major attack hit again, the U.S. economy
will also suffer another great blow.
- When the U.S. government directs its resources (including the FBI man power, etc.) to focus on the national securities against the terrorist attacks and set loose on the social crimes controls during the war, what will happen then?
- As the sentiments and momentum against the war growing
rapidly in America. Can the domestic unrest be avoided
once the war starts?
- And very importantly, what about the risks of lives of the American men and women in the Iraq war? And what about tens of thousands of these soldiers’ risk of the Gulf War Symptoms as a result of the war?
I don’t see any short or long term interests for the U.S. to start the war. And it can be very dangerous to Israel’s long-term interests as well.
P.S. Some investors mentioned that once the Iraq war starts the stock market will jump. It may be so, base on the experience in the previous wars. But here the difference, the previous wars were supported by the UN or the major allies and this time will be the exact opposite. The U.S. is making the first giant step toward a very dangerous direction in the world stage to start the war this time. Much worse things internationally and internally may still be expected ahead. The stock market rally(if it does) will be likely a short-lived one. |
