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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4048)	1/23/2003 9:58:01 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) of 13403

OT ** >> This may not be exactly what you meant. Actually I'm open to either direction. But my point is: how long does it take for the market to digest the valuation data ? In this day of information overload, I think a few years is ample. So the next point is what are stock prices reacting to ? It is not the overall valuation. In my opinion it has to be the day-to-day news of all types, plus the weekly and quarterly economic data. And the direction of these latter is mainly positive. Remember your stance from last fall ? It was that once the January reports came out, people would see that their optimism in October was unjustified. And then stocks would make new lows. Is that borne out by the reaction to the reports ? In my opinion no it isn't. There is a lot of apprehension because of war fears. But not because of valuations are outrageous. On the days that war fears recede, stocks go up. The valuation issue is resolving in the up-ward direction. But war uncertainty is keeping a ceiling on prices. I think in October you said you would short in January after the reports come out. Is that still the plan ? Good luck either way. I always enjoy reading your iconoclast opinions. Sarmad

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