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Biotech / Medical : Aviron
AVIR 3.490+3.4%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Andrew Hunter who wrote (30)7/27/1997 7:59:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap   of 645
 
I suggest you stay away from the biotech sector as most all biotech stocks are 2 to 5 yrs away from possible product approval to generate revenue and earnings. AVIR hopes to be filing their nda based on the previous clinical and this would classify them as a later stage biotech. Have you ever heard of discounted cash flow models used by analysts to discount future earnings or cash flows to the present as a valuation tool? If not you should stay away from an industry that is based on today's R&D for future profits and invest in industries and companies that you understand. Not to be blunt but your comments are counter to the basic mechanisms of the biotech industry and if everyone was as near sighted as you there would be no biotech industry or venture capital to fund any future medical cures.
Technically, there are strong reasons for this stock to retrace a good % of its previous advance but seeing the stock up on a day that they announced their secondary is something one normally does not see. I understand that Sturza came out with a strong buy recommendation on Friday and based on the 300 million market cap for a company at the later stages of the fda cycle for a product addressing a very large market is a compelling buy in today's envirenment. Quite frankly I believe there is a strong probability of this stock moving much higher after the secondary is completed if mkt conditions remain the same. The big weakness that I see in AVIR is no patent protection, at least none that I am aware of. Should be an interesting stock as this story unfolds.

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