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Technology Stocks : Altera
ALTR 53.61+1.3%Jul 7 5:00 PM EST
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To: A Kabili who wrote (347)7/21/1996 11:03:00 PM
From: Todd Cope   of 2389
 
A Kabili and Amir, What do you mean by "Long term on Altera"?

There was an intersting article in the Electronic Business Asia July 1996 issue about programmable logic. It was on page 53 (unfortunately they are not published on the WWW). The title was "PLD Sales Boom as Gate Count Soars". It talks mostly about Altera and Xilinx and how they are positioned to take advantage of the growth of the high density CPLD and FPGA markets over the long term. One of the most interesting pieces of data is a graph showing the 1995 PLD market and the projections for the year 2000 market. The 1995 market is US$1.78 billion with CPLDs making up US$563 million, FPGAs making up US$717 million and SPLDs making up US$497 million. The year 2000 projection is for a market of US$6.71 billion with FPGAs making up $3.04 billion and CPLDs making up US$3.33 billion and SPLDs slipping to US$330 million. Since Altera is the CPLD leader and Xilinx is the FPGA leader one would think these guys should have a good portion of this market.

Assuming the estimates are even remotely accurate and the long term outlook is so good why would one consider shorting these companies for a risky short term gain? I understand that techincally they (especially Altera) had been in a down trend, but since the over riding fundamentals are so bullish long term how can you say, "I still don't like the long term outlook of this company."

It is your money, but to me it would just not be worth the risk to short a company with 25% growth prospects and a PE around 15.

Just my two cents.

-- Todd
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